Coffee House

David Cameron’s voteless recovery

1 August 2014

The economy has recovered, and is steadily growing. That much is now clear. It has long been assumed that this will help the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes. The logic goes that, having steered the country through difficult economic times, a grateful public will come out in their droves to thank them for it. But politics is never that simple, and the public are rarely so willing to give credit to politicians. While it may seem perverse to suggest that economic growth is harming the Tories’ electoral chances, continuing good news about the economy is making it less of an electoral issue. Voters are beginning to ask: ‘what next?’

David Cameron and the Conservatives are experiencing a voteless recovery. The economy is getting better, but their position in the polls is not – or at least not dramatically. Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives, as they have done in every single ComRes poll since February 2012. It is true that things have slightly narrowed since the heady days of the ‘omnishambles’, but not yet enough.

So, if the economy is getting better, why are voters not rewarding the Conservatives? Indeed, just one in three Britons believe that the economy is improving ‘thanks in part to this government’s policies’.

The truth is that politicians – of any creed – get very little credit for success. Voters tend to move on to the next problem. It seems increasingly likely that, despite all predictions that the 2015 General Election will be won and lost on the economy, the debate may have moved on by then.

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Indeed, we are already seeing the economy fall away as an important issue to voters: our polling in the 40 most marginal constituencies found ‘protecting the economic recovery’ to be behind the NHS, immigration and keeping down the cost of everyday items as the most important issues that will shape voters’ decision next year.

The Tories have made the economy the ace in their deck; they have pinned their hopes on it as the best way of securing a victory in 2015. Few would have argued with that electoral strategy at the outset of this parliament; but now it seems that was too simplistic a reading of the situation. Perhaps growth has simply come far too late to be useful. Indeed, the recovery is not yet being celebrated because so few people actually feel it in their pockets, meaning that Labour’s adoption of the ‘cost of living crisis’ could yet prove an electoral masterstroke in the end.

Seven in ten British adults say that, despite the economy growing, they don’t feel any better off. The need for economic credibility – something that Eds Miliband and Balls are lacking – is becoming less of an issue. Labour’s landslide in 1997 came despite the fact they lagged behind John Major’s Conservatives as the party most trusted on the economy because the economy was not the most important issue. 2015 could be a similar case, with David Cameron’s Conservatives losing despite being seen as more competent captains of the economic ship than their opponents. How people feel about their own situation will be a bigger factor when people are putting their crosses on the ballot paper.

The Conservatives will be keen to emphasise their success. But if that success is only at a macro level, and voters answer Ronald Reagan’s ‘are you better off now than you were four years ago?’ in the negative, then Labour’s message will be more relevant. Cameron, Osborne et al will have to convince voters not only that the economy is improving because of them, but that this will translate into better personal finances.

It is worth remembering that, while ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ is the oft repeated mantra from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, Clinton HQ had two other phrases: ‘Don’t forget healthcare’ and ‘Change vs more of the same’. The latter is less relevant now, the former is becoming ever more so. But what smart strategists take away is that the winning party will need to present a wider programme for victory.

Tom Mludzinski is Head of Political Polling at ComRes. He tweets @tom_ComRes

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Show comments
  • Spectre


  • Christopher Williams

    The finacialisation of the economy and the hollowing out of manufacturing has minimalised and homogenised the role of mainstream UK politics. There’s simply no incentive for the increasingly disillusioned to vote for more of the same unrepresentative leadership. A revolution in political consciousness and direct
    democratic political engagement by the voter at local and national level is the
    way forward methinks.

  • John Byde

    It’s very simple unless you live in the journalistic bubble: large swathes of traditional tory voters will never vote for them again because a) they refused a promised referendum on the EU and b) they legalised something called “Homosexual marriage”.

  • Lady Magdalene

    It’s a voteless “recovery” for a myriad of reasons, but mainly to do with the fact that Cameron deliberately set out to drive away his core right wing vote and other potential voters who are opposed to the EU, the resulting mass immigration and the lunacies of the ECHR (which are very much linked with the lunacies of the EU).

    He then punished middle income groups by removing Child Benefit from stay at home mothers; dragged millions more into the 40% tax bracket; reneged on the IHT promise and landed their children with £9,000pa university fees.

    Yet he is quite prepared to shower money on the EU; EU immigrants; International Welfare and any other cause which he thinks is worthwhile.

    Finally, to rub even more salt in the wounds, he pushed through a Planning process which is blatantly loaded in favour of Developers and which is leading to the destruction of countryside, green belt and obscene levels of housing being forced on villages which don’t need or want it. And all because he refuses to take the action necessary to drastically cut immigration.

    If you insult and cr@p on your potential voters, you shouldn’t be surprised if they decide to vote elsewhere.

    Lady Mag: looney, fruitcake, closet racist, swivel eyed, Turnip Taleban, odd, a clown and an ex Conservative voter.

  • kle4

    I take some issue with the idea that it has long been ‘assumed’ an economic recovery would help the Tories. I would say that it has been a long time hope, but that plenty of people had been of the view that it might not, or at least not help them as much as it needed to, or even as much as might be fair.

  • kyalami

    Why are voters not rewarding the Tories? Among other things because they seem to be going out of their way to alienate their core vote in the country. There seems to be a complacent and smug dependence that we will always vote Conservative. May 2015 will bring a nasty surprise with several “safe” seats lost.

  • Smithersjones2013

    Oh dear I fear Mudlzinski has pulled his punches, fearing to offend (who I know not), and preferred to offer bland generalities rather than dealing with the with the real issues and events that have transpired.

    For example,He ignores that this is the first true coalition this country has had since WWII (and remember how voters thanked Churchill then). He overlooks that the left is probably as united as it has been since 1970. The Libdems for the first time since 1970 are on course to poll less than 10%. The right on the other hand for the first time in modern history is truly divided with Cameron and his clique showing a penchance for treating with contempt, insulting, abusing and outraging the very. voters who normally in previous decades the Conservatives would rely on to see them past the winning post

    He also ignores the sub-plot of the economic crisis which is the longstanding imbalance in our economy (the Coalition have stabilsed the economy but not addressed the underlying causes of its weakness) or the horrendous debt scenario we live in or the threat of rising interest rates and taxes that hangs over us (which Labour’s dishonest spin has been that they will squeeze the rich until their pips squeak). Nor does he address the much greater economic fragility of the Eurozone which because of our membership of the EU threatens us almost as much as it does the Eurozone countries.

    Instead he makes vague comparisons with 1997 but again ignores the fact that the Tories were clearing up their own economic mess then and not as in this case clearing up Labour’s. Such comparisons are not useful.

    it is entirely possible that the collective Labour and Tory vote will be the lowest in real and relative vote share terms that it has been in the modern era. Whoever comes top, their victory will only be fleeting and pyrrhic because it will be they that will inherit the largest public sector debt,the most obese resource hungry public sector in history and the most distrusting, inntolerate of government demands and cynical electorate in many generations. . Whoever wins the only way is down……..

    Whillst Mludzinski may have successfully avoided the tirade of abuse that comes with writing a contraversial (and often propagandist) provocative piece on here he has sacrificed any real insight in doing so. All in all a bland, obvious and vacuous piece!

    • HookesLaw

      The only way you can square your circle is to spout ‘Cameron and his clique’.

      The facts are the govt are pursuing the right policies to support the economy whilst at the same time cutting spending and moving away from reliance on bankers bonuses.

      ‘cliques’ are all right for you when they include Farage and his increasingly racist clique

      • Smithersjones2013

        I knew you would bite Hooky but frankly I haven’t got the time to play with you today so let me leave you with this response.

        Go forth and multiply. (if you know what I mean)

      • Alexsandr

        you know liblabcon are frit when they bring out the old racist chestnut.
        for the hard of thinking. DISCUSSING IMMIGRATION IS NOT RACIST

        • HookesLaw

          You are obviously immune to the way kippers chose to discuss it then.
          Stop pretending; we can all hear Farage’s dog whistles.

          • Adam Carter

            There are no Farage dog whistles.
            Discussing immigration is not racist. You shout ‘Racist!’ to try to shut down debate.
            I will now make my own position crystal clear.
            I don’t care about race: Chinese, Indians, Slovaks… I don’t care. But I don’t want ANY mohammedans. They do NOT benefit the UK.

      • John Byde

        Ok, Mrs Cameron, we know it’s you!

  • Denis_Cooper

    It’s been clear for some time that roughly as many people blame the coalition for initially making the economy worse before it started to get better as give them credit for it getting better, with the other third or so blaming both the present government and the last government equally. That is why so far it has been a voteless recovery for the Tories, they are being given as much blame as credit.

  • Shazza

    Labour has one enormous advantage over the Conservatives..

    The BBC.

    Need I say more.

  • RavenRandom

    The article writer appears to be deliberately obtuse… the difference this time is the regular polling of 14% for UKIP. No UKIP and I expect the Conservatives would be well ahead.

    • Blindsideflanker

      As UKIP is a product of Cameron, don’t you mean if there was no Cameron around then the Conservatives would be well ahead?

      • RavenRandom

        Certainly an element to it. The public invented UKIP, because the three main parties in essence disenfranchised the public by refusing to listen to concerns on the EU and immigration. They pursued policies contra to what so many of the public seriously cared about, that a new party came into being,
        So, yes Cameron is part of it. The consensus among the self-selecting elite that ruled us was the main cause.

    • Denis_Cooper

      In the complete absence of UKIP from the political scene I would expect the Tories to still be just behind Labour by maybe 1%, but probably 7% short of getting an overall majority because of the continuing electoral bias.

    • Mynydd

      Wish full thinking, if there was no water I couldn’t have a cup of tea.

      • RavenRandom

        How is it wishful thinking… it’s a simple statement of polling facts. “if there was no water I couldn’t have a cup of tea” factually accurate but ridiculous non-sequitur. Why is there a voteless recovery is the article’s question… well a 14% position for UKIP could easily be the reason.

        • Mynydd

          It could easily not be the reason. I would point out at the last election the Lib Dems were over 20% in the polls yet they lost seats. UKIP’s 14% in the present polls does not mean they will win 14% of the seats, they could well win none.

          • RavenRandom

            It could easily not be the reason, ergo it could easily be the reason. Hence it is not wishful thinking but a real possibility.
            Those UKIP votes are coming from somewhere… most likely Tories in which case the Tory vote this time is lower than it would otherwise be.

  • foxoles

    ‘Seven in ten British adults say that, despite the economy growing, they don’t feel any better off.’

    No wonder – per capita GDP is 8% lower than before the last recession. You can keep trumpeting ‘the economy is growing’ all you like – if you ignore per capita wealth, it just means ‘we’ve got more people’.

    • Mynydd

      Please stop making anti-Tory pro-Labour propaganda, you know it only upsets the right wingers here.

      • Colonel Mustard

        Propaganda is tedious. Lies are just lies.

        There are two or three Lieborg trolls like you squatting on every right wing blog. So obsessive are you about controlling the narrative that you can’t even let a few dissenters grumble in peace.

        Far from influencing anyone it just makes us detest you and your nasty cult even more.

    • Colonel Mustard
  • English Majority

    They just don’t understand that they should be grovelling to the native majority.

    In these sickening end-days, the conservative party does everything to hurt and destroy its own people. They’re relentlessly pro-immigration; the people are violently anti-immigration. They’re pro-multiculturalism; the people are now repulsed by what multiculturalism has wrought upon us, and never wanted it from the start. They’re pro-Islam, VERY pro-Islam; the people deeply, deeply despise and resent Muslim’s presence here and the Third World corruption, terrorism and benefit draining they’ve brought. They’re pro-foreign aid; the people are aggressively against it, and can’t comprehend why, in austerity, its even still a thing. This list goes on and on and on.

    That’s how weak and destroyed we are: we’re so oppressed and unrepresented, the parasite political class know they can get away with not even having to cater for us at all.

    All the main parties do this exact same thing.

    • trotters1957

      A fact free essay, well done.
      All hyperbole.
      You think you are a majority, you are not, we’ll see at the election when UKIP get 8% of the vote.

      • English Majority

        You don’t seem to realise that the vast majority of native Brits DON’T VOTE.

        That’s how destroyed we are.

        Do you think politics and politicians represent the people?

        Yes, I am the majority. The majority of native English people would strongly agree with all of my points above.

        Get over it.

        • HookesLaw

          Go get a life yourself you nasty bigoted racist.

          • styants64

            What is racist about stating the truth, mass immigration the the country did not need and has ruined our homogenous harmonious society and also brought no end of heartache to the British working classes, millions have left the big inner cites because of abuse and also sky high crime rates, the fall of the Roman Empire all over again you could not make it up but the truth hurts.

          • John Byde

            I think you just lost the argument, dearie!

        • Holly

          …And the longer the native Brits don’t vote, the more destroyed we will be.

    • Shazza

      Spot on.

  • Mynydd

    In reality after a recession the economy will recover in spite of the government. All a government can do is change the rate of recovery. In this respect Mr Cameron/Osborne slowed down the economic recovery in their first budget in a failed attempt to eliminate the deficit in one parliament. I say slowed down the rate of recovery because when they came to power the recession was over and growth had returned, Q2/2010 GDP growth was 1%. Since then there have been four quarters when the economy has contracted with negative growth, even now Q2/2014 GDP growth is only 0.8%. For the majority of people, with the exception of those earning over £150,000, have seen their standard of living fall and it will still fall right up to the general election, and there is nothing Mr Cameron can do about it. He cannot go back and correct his mistakes. It is highly unlikely that wages and savings will rise above the rate of inflation, and it is this rise in the cost of living and the resultant decrease in living standards the general public feel each and every week.
    There is an old saying: you can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. Mr Cameron’s fool time is running out.

    • Blindsideflanker

      The City have a saying of a dead cat bounce, when a market collapses there is frequently an up tick at the bottom before the market retraces again. This is true about recessions, what Labour got was this up tick, combined with them throwing money at the economy. There was no recovery under way, there was still a chronic systemic failure in our banking system (you don’t get a recovery with that ), and the US was still on its knees, and Europe has about to enter the Euro crisis. and you don’t get a recovery when that is happening.

      What happened under Labour wasn’t a recession, it was a depression, you don’t turn those around in a year or two. The 1920’s depression took 25 years to work through, in this we still have along way to go to get through the 2007 Depression, after all economies are still being kept afloat with funny money QE.

      • Mynydd

        Because the city says something it’s not necessary true. The city (and the Conservative Party) said there are too much bank regulations, now we know that was not true.
        When you are at the bottom there is only one way to go that’s up, tick or not. Yes the Labour government, and then the Conservative government pumped funny money (QE) into the banking system to support the very people who produced the chronic systemic failure in the first place.
        Yes the USA was on it’s knees, however it recovered it’s pre-crisis level three years ago, so why only now for the UK? Could it have been Mr Cameron/Osborne’s policies.

    • Alexsandr

      you can always engineer growth by borrowing, either government or private. Trouble starts when you have to pay it back.

      • Mynydd

        Tell me, the borrowing (National Debit doubled) by Mr Cameron/Osborne as this engineered the growth they claim.

        • HookesLaw

          You keep repeating this dummy argument. The coalition inherited a deficit of 160 billion. That cannot be removed overnight, especially with an economy shrunk by 7.2%, and labour were not proposing to either.
          You are fooling no one

          • Mynydd

            I’ll continue to repeat Mr Cameron/Osborne said they would remove it in one parliament, now they say two parliaments With respect to Mr Brown/Darling their plan was to half it in one parliament, to avoid cutting off the growth.

            • Colonel Mustard

              You’ll continue to LIE then

              “The coalition agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats didn’t set any firm targets on the UK government’s debt, or on its deficit – the gap between how much the government takes in through tax and how much it spends. Rather than set out a specific goal, it said deficit reduction was the “most urgent issue” facing the UK economy and it would “significantly accelerate the reduction of the structural deficit over the course of a parliament”.

              However, a month later, in his first “emergency budget”, George Osborne set out two far more specific goals. The first was on the deficit:

              “The formal mandate we set is that the structural current deficit should be in balance in the final year of the five-year forecast period, which is 2015-16 in this budget.”

              And the second was on national debt:

              “In order to place our fiscal credibility beyond doubt, this mandate will be supplemented by a fixed target for debt, which in this parliament is to ensure that debt is falling as a share of GDP by 2015-16.”

              From your own house rag:-


              • Mynydd

                “The formal mandate we set is that the structural current deficit should be in balance in the final year of the five-year forecast period, which is 2015-16 in this budget.” In balance means the structural current deficit would eliminated it 2015/16 By his own words and plans he has failed to meet this mandate, he now say it will be 2018/19.

                “In order to place our fiscal credibility beyond doubt, this mandate will be supplemented by a fixed target for debt, which in this parliament is to ensure that debt is falling as a share of GDP by 2015-16.” A fixed target for debt is a specific number, say 40% of GDP. Debt falling as a share of GDP is a meaningless statement because it doesn’t have a start point. Falling compared to what, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. the first Monday in 2015. It seem logic is not one of Mr Osborne’s strong points

                • Colonel Mustard

                  That is not the point you doofus. The point is that you LIED about the mandate to eliminate the deficit in this parliament.

                  You are a typical socialist dissembler. As soon as you are called out on your original LIE you move the goalposts and redefine the terms of debate to maintain the criticism. An honest, decent person would have said fair enough they got it wrong.

    • Colonel Mustard

      Then why do you try to fool all the people all the time with your constant anti-Tory, pro-Labour propaganda? Don’t Labour have enough of their own problems in Wales already?

      • Mynydd

        Why is it anti-Tory and pro-Labour to state simple facts. The recession was over at the time of the 2010 general election, and GDP growth figures are Q2/2010 = 1%, Q2/2014 = 0.8%. These facts are for the United Kingdom of Great Britain not only for Wales.

        • HookesLaw

          At the time of the election the economy was 7% smaller than before the crash.
          End of recession is not the same as recovery.
          All labour did was to increase spending to prop itself up before the election.

          • Mynydd

            All Conservative’s have done is to increase spending and borrowing to prop itself up before the election.

        • Alexsandr

          it was a paid for recovery paid for by borrowing money to be repaid by our children and grandchildren

        • Colonel Mustard

          I await to read a single pro-Tory or anti-Labour comment from you and your “facts” suck.

    • HookesLaw

      Osborne’s policy was not to eliminate the deficit within one parliament. You are an ignorant fool and your whole argument fails on the basic falseness of your premise.
      The government wanted to eliminate the structural deficit within pone parliament. On taking office it was found by the ONS the BoE etc that the structural deficit was bigger than thought. Also the Eurozone crisis hit the economy as well. The govt did not try to ruin the economy by pressing on with its policy and added 2 years to the period of eliminating the structural deficit. It was wise and has done a good job. As we saw in a recent article quoted on here, the govt are somewhat ahead of its target for reducing spending.

      Thick socialists and nutjob loony right wingers will not be willing to admit this of course.

      • Mynydd

        So the government’s first budget plan was to eliminate the (structural) deficit within one parliament. Why on earth did Mr Cameron/Osborne produce a budget and a five year parliament long plan, when if as you say, they were they were not in procession of the full facts. It’s no wonder one parliament as become two.
        By the way borrowing is still of the order of 100bn.

      • ButcombeMan

        The thick looney “right wingers” are largely Cameron’s missing voters.

        50 years of my support and Cameron threw it away. It would not surprise me if the Tories were out of office now, for a very long time.

        Cameron did that.

  • Peter Stroud

    Surely voters have not forgotten Gordon Brown’s disastrous performance, as chancellor and PM. Or that Messrs Miliband and Balls were his close advisors. Also I cannot believe that voters wish for a Labour government, with trade union bosses calling the shots. But then, I am an eternal optimist.

    • Alexsandr

      no they dont. but they dont see the tories as the saviour. Have no not noticed we have 4 party politics in England now?
      and there are a huge swathe of people who would not vote tory ever full stop. the brand is now fatally flawed.

    • Blindsideflanker

      Unfortunately while in opposition the Conservatives under Cameron failed to put down a marker on the economy, they never took the economic fight to Brown, as a result when it all went pear shaped Labour claimed it was a global recession.

      • Mynydd

        Quite the opposition, Mr Cameron/Osborne’s long term plans were to match Labour’s spending plans and share the proceeds of growth.

    • southerner

      Nobody with half a brain wants a Labour government but if the Camerloons just get over the line again it’ll be another 5 years of left wing Europhile social democracy. For the greater good the useless un-conservatives need to be defeated and implode and a new genuinely conservative patriotic party needs to replace it.

      • HookesLaw

        Total cr@p. You want to destroy the country on the altar of your own stupidity. Only one party will give a referendum on the EU and thats the Tory party.
        But we really know the truth. Your words are just code for race hatred.

        • southerner

          Patriotism has nothing to do with race.

          But you socialist nutters see waaaaycism everywhere.

  • Alexsandr

    the reason the tories are failing is they are not appealing to core tory voters. These are the voters they have p1ssed off by calling them loons and fruitcakes or whatever. Then forcing non conservative policies like gay marriage on them. Failure to act decisively on the EU and migration are also factors. I know hooky will deny this till he is blue in the teeth but many got the distinct impression Cameron was offering a cast iron guarantee on a referendum on Lisbon, and they didnt get it. People dont read the small print.
    and the reason people are not feeling the benefit of the economy growing is that people see GDP increase and think we should be doing better. but all the ‘main’ parties are duplicitous about this. The number that matters is not GDP but GDP/capita, and that is fairly flat. because of immigration.
    now that may not be all factually accurate but thats how people perceive it.

    • Mynydd

      Mr Cameron has lost over half of his core tory voters, the foot soldiers in a general election.

      • Alexsandr

        aye but they are not going to vote Labour are they? And plenty of core ex labour voters are considering UKIP. Look at Doncaster and Rotherham councils.

        • Mynydd

          It doesn’t matter or not that they are going to vote Labour the ex-Tory voter will not be out there working for Mr Cameron’s Conservative Party.
          Are you tell me that UKIP control Doncaster and Rotherham councils?

          • Alexsandr

            no but in the may elections UKIP won 10 out of 21 seats up for grabs in rotherham

            and they have 2 in donny. Now who is the MP for doncaster North? One of the donny ones is a recent by-election.
            I make the point cos many labout supporters seem to think UKIP is a tory problem. No, its a liblabcon problem.

    • trotters1957

      The Tories can’t win an election if they only appeal to their own diminishing, aging and ultimately dying core voters.
      The 2010 election proved that.
      Women and younger voters have to be attracted otherwise they will only get 35% at best.

      • Alexsandr

        diminishing ageing voters? what about the baby boom, now approaching 60. I think they will be around for a while yet. I hope so anyway!

        • Colonel Mustard

          It was just the usual socialist ageism. Ageing socialists of 57 years are of course permanently juvenile so mentally exempt themselves from such jibes. Age defined in political terms, like everything else.

      • slyblade

        At 58 i was a core Tory voter, now switched to UKIP
        Most young people do not vote that’s why Cameron will lose.

        As for appealing to the women and younger voters, their wages are suppressed, cant get on the housing ladder, benefits cut, disposable incomes reduced. So how is he going to attract these voters?

        • HookesLaw

          Then you are stupid. All you will do is provide for a labour govt that will take us deeper into Europe.

          The Conservative party have made it plain they want to renegotiate and give a referendum. But you want to turn your back on that and provide for a europhile Labour govt led by a crypto-marxist.

          • Mynydd

            Heath, Thatcher, and Major all Conservative Prime Minister’s took us far deeper into Europe than any Labour Prime Minister, In fact it was Wilson, the then Labour PM, that give us the first and only referendum

            • Colonel Mustard

              It was Wilson who gave us a referendum in which he misrepresented what the EU was about.

              “The aims of the Common Market are:

              To bring together the peoples of Europe.

              To raise living standards and improve working conditions.

              To promote growth and boost world trade.

              To help the poorest regions of Europe and the rest of the world.

              To help maintain peace and freedom.”

              Nothing there about a federal super state or centralised politburo.

              “Another anxiety expressed about Britain’s membership of the Common Market is that Parliament could lose its supremacy, and we would have to obey laws passed by unelected ‘faceless bureaucrats’ sitting in their headquarters in Brussels.”

              Which has pretty much come to pass. You can read the rest of Wilson’s lies for yourself here:-


              At the time he was working for the comintern so he had a vested interest in seeing the rise of a soviet-style socialist union in Europe.

          • slyblade

            Firstly we do not want to renegotiate with the EU we want out, that’s the difference between UKIP and the Tory party. We also do not believe Cameron will keep this promise as he has clearly u-turned on so may of his promises (remember the recall promise) he has had them all erased from the conservative home web site

            As for me being stupid, well we see the nasty party you represent once again showing it’s true colours. If you think by being abusive will endear us to come back to the Tory Party you are much mistaken. When you are calling people stupid you may want to take a long hard look in the mirror fist.

            • HookesLaw

              Thats stupid. Once out then you would have to go back to negotiate access to their markets.
              This is the big lie that Farage peddles and you are thick enough to fall for it. Access would involve being part of the single market and obeying EU regulations, just like now.

              Cameron has not u turned an any EU promise – thats your pretence. He has said we do not want any part of ever closer Eu and Eurozone union and will renegotiate our position.
              You are stupid – tough having to be told it – but its Farage who is doing the lying. Its you handing over power to a europhile labour party — how stupid is that?
              Its a hysteric lie to keep blaming our problems on the EU.

              • slyblade

                You are correct we would need to renegotiate our trade with the EU, just like Switzerland and Norway and many other countries that successfully trade with the EU but are not politicly governed by them. Given the fact the EZ economy is stagnating and little signs of growth why would we want to shackle ourselves to the financial corps. Out side of the EU we would be able to negotiate our own trade deals with the rest of the world.

                As for Cameron not u-turning on the EU , you have a selective grasp of History, so let me refresh your memory

                in 2009 Cameron said this see link below

                In it he staes there should be a referendum NOW 2009


                in October 2011 Cameron three line whipped his party against a EU referendum


                Now he tells us we will have to wait until 2017 when he will renegotiate first before putting it to a referendum (notice a pattern emerging here) Yet he fails to tell us what he is actually going to renegotiate. So on blind faith you want me to come back and vote for him on this track record. Without knowing what he will or not renegotiate? and you keep calling me stupid!

              • slyblade

                Oh sorry i forgot to add this from one his advisor’s.

                “A Tory insider has blown the lid. Cameron has no intention of holding the referendum, and his inner circle still believe that he can get away with avoiding a referendum.”

                Cameron and his inner circle love the gullible Tory fools who believe empty promises of a referendum.

                “In a fresh broadside on Mr Cameron, former aide Mr Cummings said: “People assume Cameron feels totally committed to a referendum if he stays as prime minister but that’s not right.

                “Cameron’s inner circle thinks he can still dodge the bullet of a referendum, though if he tries his party may send in a firing squad.’

                The revelation will infuriate Tory Eurosceptics who are delighted with the PM’s pledge. Delivering another embarrassment for Mr Cameron, Mr

                Cummings also dubbed Mr Cameron’s referendum offer as “a promise he never liked that commits him to something he never wanted”.

              • ButcombeMan

                You really do not understand WTO arrangements or the renegotiations consequent upon an Article 50 declaration.

                Your comments are plain silly.

                • slyblade

                  He is a Tory troll who has little grasp of facts or reality.

              • slyblade

                Oh forgot his one as well

                Cameron being interviewd in a Spanish magazine

                Tuesday, 9 April 2013

                Cameron Admits He Won’t Honour An Out Vote In A Referendum

                While Cameron basks in the limelight of a “great leader and a great Briton”, we find more evidence that Mrs Thatcher he most certainly is not. Whatever one thinks of Mrs Thatcher, one thing never in doubt was she said what she meant and meant what she said. Cameron could not be further away from that principle if he tried.

                As has been well documented here and elsewhere, his promise of a referendum on our “relationship” with the European Union is a sham, will be rigged and is not possible. Trying to renegotiate a looser relationship with the EU goes against the very fabric of the organisation.

                However there is now a sting in the tail, as noted by Richard North, Cameron has no intention of honouring an out vote in the unlikely event one would occur. In an interview with the Spanish El Pais with the headline quote from Cameron; “The best solution for the UK is to stay in a reformed EU”, he was asked the following (via Google translate):

                In case of a Yes victory in the referendum that will organize on leaving the EU, would you be willing to withdraw from the Union?

                And Cameron’s response:

                I would not. (No me gustaría)

                That Cameron makes such an admission – of willfully ignoring a referendum vote – in a foreign newspaper is revealing. Truly he’s the child of Europe, his hero evidently instead is Barroso (EU Commission President):

                “They must go on voting until they get it right.”

                Slightly amazingly “cast-iron” has managed to sink even lower.

                • HookesLaw

                  You are quoting a canard that the numpties are spreading around
                  If you delved a little deeper you would realise that “No me gustaría” translates better to “I would not like to” rather than
                  “I would not”. You can see if you chose to that he goes on to say “I would like to get reform of the EU …”

                  So I think he’s saying he wouldn’t want to withdraw from the EU, rather than he wouldn’t withdraw from the EU. Which is something he said in his January speech.

                  Keep spreading the UKIP smears, you are clearly daft enough to. The fact that your hysterical claim has not made into mainstream responsible reports shows how wrong it is – and probably shows that the English transcript would ruin your argument.

                  Cameron has said he would resign as PM if a future coalition could not deliver a referendum.


                • slyblade

                  I would not like to” rather than “I would not”. Not much difference as far as i can see, he is basically saying he will do anything to keep us in the EU that much i know as he has said these words himself, so he doesn’t get mine and all of UKIP supporters votes. Even at 8% at the last poll ( and this is the worst poll we have had) this will guarantee you will not win a majority. Yes it will let that soap head miliband in but then you have been warned.

                  As i see it we are being blackmailed to vote Tory in the highly unlikely chance of a referendum on renegotiated terms he will not tell us what they are just to keep out Miliband. You are going to have to work a lot harder to get my vote back than that. Insulting us UKIP supporters is not helping your cause any either (haven’t you learnt that basic concept yet)

                  Frankly anything Cameron says is to treated with suspicion
                  Also the fact you have completely ignored his advisor’s words shows to me you only want to believe in your spurious facts. keep looking in the mirror.

                • slyblade

                  I note you still haven’t responded to the post regarding his aids comments or the fact i have proved that Cameron u-turned on a EU referendum, all you can do is pick a minor hole in some Spanish translation. What the elephant in the room to big for you.

                  keep looking in the mirror

                • Colonel Mustard

                  It seems a bit odd to answer “I would not like to” to the question “…would you be willing…?”. Usually, in English, you would simply answer “yes” or “no” perhaps adding a conditional “if”.

                  So Cameron was saying he would not like to be willing? If the translation is accurate, which I doubt, it just confirms his Mr Slippery routine.

              • Lady Magdalene

                Wrong Hooky.
                If we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treachery, we have 2 years to negotiate a Trade Treaty before our exit from the EU is finalised.
                They will be only too keen to negotiate….. they sell more to us than we do to them.

          • Lady Magdalene

            We don’t want Cameron’s mini-renegotiation followed by a rigged Referendum.
            We want out.

          • John Byde

            You don’t negotiate with the EU! Cameron and the hopeless Tories will pretend to win a few points (remember his oh-so-courageous “battle” to keep out Junkie?) and then claim victory. He’s toast!

        • Mynydd

          If most young people do not vote why do you think they will vote UKIP just like you.

  • swatnan

    Tories always try that old trick of cutting taxes and reducing the price of beer, and playing the race card. The Romans used to do that with bread and circuses; and it still fools most of the people all of the time. If you stopped immigration Britain would virtually collapse, but the plebians out there don’t seem to understand that. They’d still have to work twice as hard for half the pay. And the reason is : the elderly population is increasing. Its the elderly that are the problem not the immigrants who are largely taking care of the elderly for us.

    • Alexsandr

      nice lefty rant with no relevance to the subject. well done.

    • Mynydd

      For all his words Mr Cameron increased VAT to 20%, with respect to beer it was buy 300 and get 1 free.

      • Alexsandr

        did you see the state of the public finances in 2010. Now who was in power 1997-2010?

        • HookesLaw

          The libdems are the ones who wanted to split the deficit reduction 20% tax and 80% spending. I think it was in the coalition agreement.
          I doubt VAT will ever come down now but I also suspect that only the Tories will use spare revenues to cut income tax.

          • Mynydd

            During the last Labour government basic rate income tax was cut down to 20%, you can suspect all you like, but there is also history.

            • HookesLaw

              The rate of income tax under labour went up from 10% to 20% in 2007 as part of Brown’s gimmick to help him get elected labour leader.
              Brown increased National Insurance. They will do that again given the chance.

              • Mynydd

                For your information the basic rate of income tax was never 10%.

                • Colonel Mustard

                  10 March 1999: “THE CHANCELLOR Gordon Brown yesterday confirmed the introduction of a 10p starting rate of tax to take effect almost immediately, as part of a three-year package of tax and national insurance (NI) reforms aimed at spreading the tax burden from poorer to better-off people. In a measure which experts described as “redistributive” and “living up to his Robin Hood image”, Mr Brown also announced that the 10p rate, the lowest band for 35 years, will apply from 6 April on the first £1,500 slice of taxable income above the personal allowance.”

                  But of course as usual with Brown is was not WYSIWYG because he scrapped the 20% band and lowered the 23% band. Then he scrapped the 10p tax rate, hurting 5.1 million of the lowest paid:-


        • Mynydd

          Yes I also see doubling of the National Debit during Mr Cameron’s watch, and remember he said during Party Political Broadcast ‘we are paying down debit’ which was a deliberate lie because he knew it was, and still is, going up.

    • foxoles

      And immigrants, of course, never get old.

      • Denis_Cooper

        It’s hard to believe that someone can really be as stupid as this swatnan appears to be. Maybe he is, or maybe he isn’t; maybe he just assumes that everybody else is stupid and will swallow his tripe.

    • English Majority


    • Raddiy

      “They’d still have to work twice as hard for half the pay.”

      Rubbish!!, The 15th Century was the golden age for the workers of this country. The black death had laid waste to the population, resulting in a high demand and increased wages for the available labour, which in itself also hastened the end of the feudal system as they also demanded better working conditions. Only when the population recovered, and we again had a surfeit of labour to be exploited did deprivation and low wages return.

      The law of supply and demand is fundamental to a market economy, if there is a surplus of workers, wages go down. if there is a shortage of workers wages go up. The fact you seem completely oblivious to this simple fact speaks volumes about your understanding of anything.

  • monty61

    It boils down to whose recovery this is. Real wages are still falling, gdp per head (hammered by immigration) is also still falling. These trends are very long-lived and even if they turn the corner how long will it take for this to be felt?

    In the meantime taxes have risen for most people (look at the staggering number brought into 40% tax) so those at the bottom – never Conservative voters – can have any stake in the system removed by being taken out of tax altogether. 20% VAT Is a killer too.

    No-one is saying Labour could have done any better (hence the unbending polls) but with ‘austerity’ no more than a myth and the national debt doubling in 5 years, you’d really expect rather more. Where are the REAL cuts (to the obscene level of housing benefit for example, which should be relabeled as the Landlord Subsidy) that might restore some fairness to the system.

    Those at the very top are stlll doing nicely. Thsoe at the bottom are still having handouts galore. The rest of us are are still being squeezed. Where’s the joy in that?

    • Alexsandr

      the slow erosion of the 40% band threashold is one of the scandals of our time. And people in that band can get tax credits. how mad is that?

    • HookesLaw

      GDP per head is rising, the same as it did in the labour years when GDP was rising.
      As we saw in article a few days ago the govt are cutting spending and are in fact ahead of their programme.
      There is no joy in recovering from a recession that ripped 7.2% from the economy. You and others need a reality check.

      Cutting deeper earlier would actually undermine the economy and its ability to preserve jobs. Unemployment is falling quicker than expected and those people in jobs are far better off than they otherwise would be.

  • Davidh

    Economy is improving. People aren’t quite so immediately worried about it all falling off a cliff. People think they can go back to voting for free lunches with ice cream.

  • HookesLaw

    Clinton was in opposition when they ran up those slogans. They were slogans to attack the incumbent an incumbant with no record to defend. An incumbent with a weak economy.
    None of those slogans have any resonance now or in 2015.
    Where is Labour’s attack slogan? They have none. All they have is their own disastrous record. The tory slogan should be the equivalent of ‘Remember the Alamo’.

  • Blindsideflanker

    There will be no trickle down while mass immigration ensures employers don’t have to raise wage levels to attract labour.

    And the economy will not be able to afford higher wages while companies find it cheaper to hire cheap ‘hard working’ immigrants ( that the state subsidises ) rather than invest capital in productivity.

    So it is a voteless recovery for Cameron because the ‘proceeds of growth’ are not getting shared around.

    • HookesLaw

      Investing in capital means fewer jobs – otherwise there is no point.

      • Blindsideflanker

        Yes, but you seem to have forgotten what has led up to that point of a company investing in productivity, a rising wage bill.

        Mass immigration has put us on a spiral downwards of low wages, low productivity, and low value added employment.

        • HookesLaw

          Wage restraint in the recession has preserved jobs. Provided that expansion lies behind investment then those jobs will remain preserved in the future.
          Higher wage growth not supported by rises in productivity will lead to inflation and undermine the alleged benefits of higher wages.

          Immigrants do jobs British people on benefits refused to do. Virtually every time I catch a bus I say hello to an immigrant bus driver. Why? What is wrong with Brits that they would not take the job? Immigrants have not lowered wages since those on benefits should have taken them but refused.

          • Blindsideflanker

            Because the wages being paid are too low. This the market would correct if the employment market wasn’t being rigged by mass immigration keeping wage levels depressed.

            It is no surprise that median income growth ground to a halt and started falling back in 2003-4 at the same time as Labour threw open our doors to mass immigration.

            • HookesLaw

              We have 6.5% unemployment. Those people coming onto the market instead of immigrants would have the same effect.
              The scandal is that our own people ought to be doing the jobs that immigrants do. But they are not interested – up to now that is, because this govt are working to get people off benefits.
              These issues originated under labour and its this govt – the tory side of it – that is trying to rectify the issue.

              I have no faith in Labour doing anything – which is why I want a return of a tory govt.

      • monty61

        Not necessarily. Jaguar for example have been happily investing in capital as they expand, but need workers to operate it,so have been hiring them as well.

        As usual you ignore the point about falling wages due to near-limitless supply of cheap workers.

        • HookesLaw

          If anything all that proves is that the basic premise of lack of investment is false.
          JLR have developed good products which have ready markets and are very saleable. They have invested in capacity to produce them. The robots etc that produce these cars use far less labour than previously.
          JLR show that what we need is innovation.

          I for one do not want to see our car industry destroyed by leaving the EU.

          • Blindsideflanker

            “UK investment fall among worst in G8
            Analysis adds to concerns that UK businesses are losing competitiveness by refusing to spend on new equipment ”

            “Britain suffered one of the biggest falls in investment among the G8 last year, adding to concerns that UK businesses are losing competitiveness by refusing to spend on new equipment.”

            In France and Germany, capital investment has remained largely stable at 19.9% and 17.2% of GDP respectively. In Britain it fell 0.8 percentage points between 2010 and 2012, to 14.3% of GDP. The US, Japan, Canada, Italy and Russia have higher levels of capital investment than the UK.

            The failure to invest now equates to future poverty.

            • HookesLaw

              Your figures refer to 2012. Business will invest when it needs to – we still have significant levels of unemployment..
              As it says in this more recent Guardian piece…
              ”Britain’s biggest businesses are preparing to invest £200bn over the next two years as they seek to benefit from the recent upturn in economic growth.”
              ”The study follows a sharp revision by the Office of National Statistics in the scale of business investment last year. Until recently the ONS predicted that investment by corporates had fallen in 2013, but last week said it had jumped 8.5% during the year.”
              ”UK economic growth in the first quarter was helped by the fastest expansion in business investment in two years, official figures have shown.”

              Our economy was slanted to bankers and bonuses and not capital investment all through the labour years.

      • Mynydd

        It would also mean lower per unit costs, increased sales and output, resulting in an increased in jobs. The Japanese and Indian owned car companies have shown this to be true.

      • samhol

        Not necessarily. Capital investment allows for more to be created with proportionately less per measured output.

        • HookesLaw

          Investment in capital in the car business in say Cowley led to numbers falling from about 20,000 to under 4,000.

    • John Dalton

      It’s vote-less because no one believes in the posturing Cameron or his light-weight lick-spittle Cameroons. They tinker with gay marriage and foreign aid while the country is in the very last stages of being salvageable – salvageable from becoming a third world Is-lamised hell-hole province of Europe that will be a hideous place to live for our children and our grandchildren. It is that desperate.

      We hoped that a Conservative dominated government would have done something about this. Imagine how Maggie would have rolled her sleeves up. Instead we get lies, platitudes and spin from the politically correct Mr. Slippery but zero action.

      If you’re voting on principle, the only party a true conservative can now vote for is UKIP.

      • John Byde

        Perfectly put!

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