Coffee House

The 2015 conundrum

7 May 2014

One of the striking things about the next election is how what is going on at the macro level looks so different from what is happening at a micro level. On the macro front, things seem to be moving the Tories’ way. The economy is growing at a good clip and that is set to continue until polling day and David Cameron has a considerable advantage on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. But to return to the micro, it is easier to see seats where Labour might gain from the Tories rather than the other way round. Ask even the most optimistic Tories what constituencies they might win to give them a double-digit majority, and they come up short.

The crucial question is whether these marginals are a lagging indicator or not. Or, does the political geography of Britain now mean that the Tories will run up huge majorities in their own seats but miss out in the key battlegrounds.

Over the next 12 months, we’ll find out the answer to this question. But what should worry Labour most is their share of the vote. The UK Polling Report average currently has them on 36%. A year out from the election, Labour would want to be higher than that. It is hard to see which voters are not currently backing the party but will shift to it over the next twelve months. By contrast, it is easy to see how the party could lose some support to the Tories as the election recovers and election-day nears.

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  • anncalba

    So if the Scots vote for independence in September, will they still be allowed to send MPs to Westminster in 2015? Most of whom will be labour. Never had a satisfactory answer to this question yet.

  • english_pensioner

    Surely Labour will win unless the Tories come to some accommodation with UKIP. UKIP could deprive them of sufficient marginal seats to give Labour a majority. A lot will depend on the outcome of the Euro elections and what pressure the result puts on Cameron. He could perhaps learn a lesson from what happened in Canada when the right was split into two parties, and also what happened when they worked together.

    • Alexsandr

      sucking up to liblabcom would kill off UKIP. kippers hate the tories. why would they want UKIP to work with them?
      The moribund tories should simply not contest where UKIP have a chance unless they secretly hanker after a labour government.

      • english_pensioner

        The first move is up to Cameron, but with good results for UKIP in the EU voting, some of his MPs in marginal seats are likely to start pushing him. Agreement could be possible, but probably not while Cameron leads the Tories.

  • Blindsideflanker

    If there is a conundrum it is the abject surrender by the political right.

    Last night Labour put out a nasty puerile party election broadcast, and the political right rather than seeing this as an opportunity to do some damage to Labour, just let it go by without hardly a comment.

    • Fergus Pickering

      If you see your opponent digging a hole for himself then don’t interfere. Milipede will bury himself. Every time he opens his mouth more of the ‘core vote’ defect.

  • Wessex Man

    Here’s a new one why don’t we just have a General Election and forget all the mumbo jumbo that people like you spout and you can report the result, of course that will mean probable redundent colunmists, here’s one to start the ball rolling- Alex Massie!

  • Alexsandr

    do the speccie staffers sit in the office, and if UKIP is mentioned, stick their fingers in their ears and sing ‘la la la la- can’t hear you!’?

  • Pier66

    Ukip wiil win about EU for sure….but can’t win a GE 2015…so as ever I will go for the Tory

    • saffrin

      Both the rich and poor alike will vote UKIP, and for the very same reason.

  • 2trueblue

    A week is a long time in politics. Cameron has a whole year and the economic news is getting better and better. Millipede has little to crow about. Liebore still dug a huge hole for all of us and people are still angry on every level with them.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      It’s not Lab that the Camerloons have to worry about.

  • BenefitsStreet
    • 2trueblue

      So 58% of them are disconected with reality.

      • BenefitsStreet

        It is the Tories and Labour that are suffering a disconnect. The UKIP vote is growing and taking supporters from both parties.

      • Hello

        That’s unfair. They are merely deferring reality. Indefinitely.

        • Wessex Man

          I rather think that we,ve suffered enough from the reality 1992-2014 thank you and will now make up our own minds.

        • Fergus Pickering

          If you can defer something indefinitely then it will never happen.

          • Hello

            Tell me, Fergus, do you point out the fu*king obvious for a living, or is this just a hobby?

  • dalai guevara

    There is no way Miliband will lose next May.
    Cameron will make mistakes. UKIP will wrist slap him.
    UKIP will make mistakes. More high level gaffes will excite to cause yet more stirs.
    Clegg is irrelevant, the Greens will subsist.
    No, there is no way Miliband can lose this – especially if he plays his Scottish joker the moment he needs to.

    • Wessex Man

      Absense hasn’t made your box of tricks any sharper has it, Labour are now picking up the pace of decline in ther polls from the Tories and Lib/dums. UKip will hold the balance of power.

    • Alexsandr

      trouble is the UKIP mistakes are not affecting them in the polls. What the MSM regard as a gaffe most people don’t care about. The rules have changed.

    • Fergus Pickering

      What is the Scottish joker. I thought wee Eck was the Scottish joker. Has Milipede ever made a joke?

    • Colonel Mustard

      Loud guffaws at such boastful hubris.

      Cross that bridge, count those chickens. Miliband might win but if he does the whole country will lose.

    • Inverted Meniscus


  • Smithersjones2013

    Oh how ironic it will be for Tories if Scotland votes to remain part of the Union and then delivers Miliband to Downing Street.

    • Hello

      Oh how ironic it will be for Ukip if Ukippers vote to leave the Union and then deliver Miliband to Downing Street. What’s that you say? The Euro? Yeh, it’s a-may-zing! We should totally join!

      Sovereignty?! What’s that?!?

      Federalism? Love it!

      Fire? Jump in!

      • Wessex Man

        Now that’s just plain scaremongering that may have worked before everyone saw through Call me Dave.

      • Alexsandr

        Yeah, we have had that argument from hooky. He wants people to vote for a party unfit to govern to keep out another party unfit to govern instead of voting for the party we want. B0110cks to that, I’m gonna vote for the party I want.

  • Barakzai

    It strikes me that Labour’s core vote is pretty assured, therefore the Conservatives must look instead to recovering a wedge of those who currently favour UKIP. That’ll require a policy recalibration that Mr Cameron, despite his history of U-turns, surely can’t countenance. Step forward the Tory grey suit fraternity to proffer the metaphorical mess Webley?

    • Wessex Man

      Sorry the frontline Tory Party in Westminster are all painted with the same brush, no chance in the last chance saloon!

    • Alexsandr

      ‘Labour’s core vote is pretty assured’
      I think the white blue collar workers are waking up to the fact they have been betrayed by labour.

      • Fergus Pickering

        Labour’s core vote is presumably the 29% who voted for them last time.

        • Alexsandr

          spose there are some who see millipede and say ‘Cor!’ :)

          • Fergus Pickering

            Robin Cook – two women had the hots for him. Women are amazing!

            • Alexsandr

              Prescott and tracey temple. Jeez.

    • auntyeleet

      We need a really massive vote for UKIP on 22 May and then the “metaphorical Webley” could become a reality.

  • Agrippina

    Hopefully UKIP will take votes from both parties and have a say in our future. As Brits, we really just want someone in govt who will deal with our concerns.

    We have a housing bubble, we have uncontrolled immigration, creaking infrastructure, lack of jobs, housing, school places and probs with the NHS.

    Thus no point in voting for the same bunch of fools to continue making a mess!

    • telemachus

      No indeed
      The current bunch of fools are shunting us to destruction
      However Ukip will send us into moral and spiritual decline
      Only Socialism can take us forward in universal prosperity and inner peace

      • right_writes

        How has that worked so far telemachus?

        At least UKIP have got a dog in the fight…

        Socialists have only encouraged and enhanced corporatism (aka fascism).

        • Andy

          Socialism = Fascism. Socialism = tyranny, oppression, mass murder.

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Learn to balance an equation Andy: = The Fascist Labour Party.

            • Andy

              Oi ! That’s my phrase, but I am delighted to see it is catching on.

      • saffrin

        Moral and spiritual decline?

        How sort the memory.
        Labour, the hypocrite’s party, the party of wrecked economies, homosexual and pedophilia promotors, war lovers, hate campaigners, habitual liars and deniers.
        Labour, the party with more convicted criminals than any other.

        • Shazza

          Very true. The Party with it’s very successful race replacement policy.

          Never ever forget –

          The Labour Party aka THE PARTY OF MASS DESTRUCTION

          • Inverted Meniscus

            Agreed but it is also the party of lies, lying and liars.

            • Shazza

              Again, very true.

      • Colonel Mustard

        Socialism has never delivered universal prosperity or inner peace. It might have delivered prosperity to its apparatchiks, bandwagon riders and gauleiters who no doubt derive inner peace from the smug arrogance that they are lucratively paid for thinking they are always right about everything.

        “Socialism is the Big Lie of the twentieth century. While it promised prosperity, equality, and security, it delivered poverty, misery, and tyranny. Equality was achieved only in the sense that everyone was equal in his or her misery.

        In the same way that a Ponzi scheme or chain letter initially succeeds but eventually collapses, socialism may show early signs of success. But any accomplishments quickly fade as the fundamental deficiencies of central planning emerge. It is the initial illusion of success that gives government intervention its pernicious, seductive appeal. In the long run, socialism has always proven to be a formula for tyranny and misery.”

        As it will be if the fratricidal, over-promoted wonk, green tax architect and Brown protégé Son of Communist slithers into No.10.

        • telemachus

          I have to hand it to you your Socialism destroying cream worked
          The whole of So what is David Cameron’s big idea is gone
          (although you can access my pearls via my moniker)
          Not often that telemachus feels guilty but if my 20 or so posts had anything to do with it I am sorry

      • Redrose82

        “Only Socialism can take us forward in universal prosperity and inner peace”

        Tell that to the French.

        • Inverted Meniscus

          Sadly, Tele believes Hollande to be the most successful economic manager in Europe.

      • Inverted Meniscus

        You have a fascinating definition of destruction. Britain is the fastest growing economy of the major Western economies and its private sector is creating 100,000 jobs a month. We are slowly reducing the massive structural deficit bequeathed by that fiscally incompetent imbecile Brown and his matching muppets Ed and Ed. It is not perfect but compared with another dose of socio political syphilus which is the Labour Party, it works for me.

    • anyfool

      There is only a housing bubble because of immigration, the areas where house prices are rising dramatically are areas of high concentration of immigrants.
      The other parts of the country are a good deal slower, although that is changing as immigrants are being forced into these areas as well.

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