Coffee House

David Cameron’s plot to keep us in the EU (it’s working)

22 May 2014

I write this before the results of the European elections, making the not very original guess that Ukip will do well. Few have noticed that the rise of Ukip coincides with a fall in the number of people saying they will vote to get Britain out of the EU. The change is quite big. The latest Ipsos Mori poll has 54 per cent wanting to stay in (and 37 per cent wanting to get out), compared with 41 per cent (with 49 per cent outers) in September 2011. If getting out becomes the strident property of a single party dedicated to the purpose, it becomes highly unlikely that the majority will vote for it. The main parties will conspire to push the idea of EU exit to the fringe. Waverers will wobble towards the status quo. It will be 1975 all over again, which is surely what David Cameron has always intended.

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  • global city

    people have recently been bombarded with the threats (largely fictitious) whilst Farage has gone on about immigrants.

    As soon as people are reminded of the bogus economics, the political consequences and the deliberate strategy of deception in order to keep people ignorant of the direction of the EU the portion of people wanting to leave will be a majority.

  • Eyesee

    Most people don’t understand the EU and believe (because they can’t be bothered to check) what vested interests say. If we had an actual debate about the EU (had you noticed that has never actually occurred?) then I think the number of people who wanted an anti-democratic, Marxist superstate government would tail off considerably. The reason UKIP is gaining traction is because more people are paying attention. Things like recessions (and expenses fiddling) do that.

  • whs1954

    “…which is surely what David Cameron has always intended.”

    Oh yes, Charles, the nasty “LibLabCon elite” Prime Minister must have plotted and planned this, rather than it being a natural function of the media doing nothing but talk about and ramp UKIP for two months solid, even when UKIP were doing nothing more than prop Farage up next to yet another bar to sink yet another pint and call it a photo opportunity.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      It’s a conspiracy. They’re all UKIP borgs. You’ve cracked it, finally.

  • Penny

    Who are these 54% and how can I meet them? I ask because, although I don’t consider myself a cave-dwelling dunce, I don’t know anywhere near enough about the EU to make an informed decision (if we actually get a referendum!). More to the point – I don’t know anyone else in my particular circle who does either. And that has to count for something if that circle comprises many local politicians and activists.

    I made a point of meeting up with a group of LibDem’s in a pub, just to pick their brains because I figured that if anyone would be able to educate me, it would be the LibDem’s. Not so. They were all terribly pro – but they’d no real idea why. Oh, they blustered about “trade” and “jobs”, but they had no more information than you’d find on a LibDem Euro election leaflet.

    So, point me in the direction of these 54% of folk who know – for sure and for why – we should stay in the union.

  • you_kid

    Charles gets it as always.
    Vote UKIP, split the right, lose Scotland, never get a referendum, ever.
    All is going exactly to plan.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      The problem is, the jocks are socialist nutters like you, and will never let go of the suckling teat of socialist government, much as that would be welcomed.

      • you_kid

        That’s not a problem, lad.
        Scotland was *sold* to the ECB a couple of months ago. Now all we require is democratic legitimacy. The latter is not difficult to obtain in Britain, not at all.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …can any other of you socialist nutters translate this gibberish?

    • Wessex Man

      go back to your playpen you silly billy you.

  • LucieCabrol

    If we left the EU and stopped paying the foreign aid we could afford build a 9 foot wall around the coast of southern england, like the israeli’s have, to keep those pesky europeans out.

    • Andy

      Heres a 1000 bricks, a shovel and a cement mixer. Get cracking girl !

  • SemiPartisanSam

    Euroscepticism could perhaps become the strident property of a single party, but if this happens it means that the Conservatives will have somehow completely imploded in on themselves. The bulk (or at least a significant minority) of Conservative MPs, especially the 2010 intake, are unlikely to want to compromise on the matter.

    Also consider the fact that many of the policies that Conservative MPs would like to enact are thwarted by Britain’s EU membership, and that this also creates pressure on them to favour secession even if not directly encouraged by public opinion.

  • Ddddddss

    Until the Tory party Purges the Pro EU Blairites like Cameron et al, it will remain unelectable.

    Coming 3rd in a national election should warn enough people.

    Because if you don’t heed that warning you’ll be fighting UKIP to avoid 3rd place again in 2015.

    How many more times we don’t want the hated EU!

  • Mike

    Most polls are pretty neutral on in out, and there’s as many wanting to leave as wanting to stay in and to suggest otherwise is a lie.

    However, what is the more relevant point is if the electorate knew the real truth about being a part of an undemocratic totalitarian dictatorship, we’d probably find a massive swing to get out now. In opposition let alone on the financial fringes like UKIP when you’re fighting a propaganda war against well heeled self interest groups like the LibLabCon artists, you’re at a major disadvantage in getting your honest message across. Its remarkable that despite the media, left right and centre along with the LibLabCon axis of SPIN, LIES AND OBFUSCATION, that they’ve done as well as they have.

    Just imagine what the polls would say if the truth were made public and honestly debated !

    • HookesLaw

      The poll in question has been monitoring public opinion rgularly on the EU for years – go to Political Betting to see the figures. Time and again the truth comes up to slap kippers in the face and they – you – ignore it, preferring to live in your fantasy world.

      In any eventual discussion on the EU it will become evident to the voters that leaving the EU will make precious difference since as members of the EEA/EFTA we would still be obeying EU rules still paying to EU regional funds and still part of the free movement of labour. As such its likely that people will decide to stay in, not that I would be bothered if we moved to the EEA, its just that there would be little material difference. it may be worse as we might be pushed into joining Schengen.

      As for the fancyful kipper notion of leaving the EU and EEA and the single market completely for some other undefined agreement and trade with the commonweath instead – that would on examination by the electorate be rejected in pretty short order. Again if we left first and negotiated later then joining Schengen would probably be demanded. The electorate are not daft and do not want to see jobs exported to Bulgaria.

      • Mike

        You are pathetic when trying to justify you’re feeble position regarding the EU.

        The reason that the electorate is so dismissive of your line and the elite establishments of LibLabCon artists is that you and your brown nosing EU sycophants refuse to debate real facts .

        When you have grown up and have the cajones to debate the truth, let us know and we’ll engage in a proper debate. Until then, I suggest you STFU and and engineer your next bunch of lies and obfuscation !

      • Wessex Man

        So there you are Hooky babe, I wondered where you were, no sign of your mate tele yet. I see you have nothing sensible to say as usual!

      • global city

        only those companies that export to the EU would have to apply their regulations, just as those who now export the US have to apply their regulations.

        straw men are easily set alight.

  • Denis_Cooper

    Maybe it should be recalled that the originator of this theory of a “Farage paradox” is an enemy of UKIP, a former general secretary of the Fabian Society, and it has been spread around by the likes of Daniel Hannan and Douglas Carswell who may well want to leave the EU but who remain Tories whose tribal loyalty to their party will always take precedence over that.

    Then maybe it should also be recalled that only about a quarter of the British electorate are firmly convinced that we must leave the EU, while about half are open to persuasion that it would be possible to stay in the EU on improved terms.

    For example, from an Open Europe report a few months ago:

    “Among British voters, a less integrated Europe with more decisions taken
    nationally or locally, is by far the most favoured option (37%). 24% want
    complete British withdraw, 15% favour the status quo and only 10% would like
    more integration with more decisions taken at the European level.”

    The more Cameron and the Tory media successfully push the line that he would
    be able to renegotiate our terms of EU membership and secure a favourable
    outcome, the more that 52% will swing towards staying in.

    But also the more he talks about achieving something which is self-evidently unachievable in a patent attempt to string the public along for a few more years, the more the 24% will decide that if they want to ever see their country free of the EU then they will have abandon whichever party loyalty they have previously had and instead support UKIP.

    And, that I suggest, is the true explanation of what has been going on; there
    is no “Farage paradox” whereby he is putting people off wanting to leave the EU,
    just “Cameron trickery” giving them false hopes that he can sort out their various grievances against the EU without the need to leave it.

  • JoeDM

    Yep. We know that ‘Dave’ is a pro-EU wet and will do everything in his power to keep us in.

    • Bob339

      That is the understatement of the century! Dave is T. Bliar light – he tried his best to get us into the Syria conflict did he not?

  • Smithersjones2013

    It is not UKIP’s fault that it is the only party to favour withdrawal, it does not decide the policies of other parties; their leaderships do. So instead of blaming UKIP for the failures of the Tory party (in particular as they still flirt with Euroscepticism) perhaps Moore should am his criticism at the door of the party who really should be blamed.

    If Tory Eurosceptics truly value their Euroscepticism then they must purge their party of Europhiliacs like Cameron, Clarke and Heseltine and become a credible Eurosceptic party. Then the Tory rump of blue donkeys, sheeple and nodding dogs who agree with everything no matter how contradictory their blue rosette wearing masters tell them can join with UKIP in overturning the suffocating stranglehold that Brussels has on our country Otherwise Tory commentators like Moore might as well shut the f*** up and prostrate themselves to the alter of ever closer union along with all the the duplicitous lying traitorous tories who have already sold us out to Brussels

    • WatTylersGhost

      Well said.

    • Tony_E

      There is every chance that the conservatives could unseat Cameron after the next election if he wins. If the referendum is set, and he looks to swing the tories behind in, the backbenchers could depose him.

      The tories have less scruples about regicide.

      • Mike

        I think it will happen before then !

      • Smithersjones2013

        The tories have less scruples about regicide.

        No scruples possibly but I think they have more sense these days (finally when its too late) these days. The last time they successfully tried it on a sitting prime Minister (Thatcher) it split the party in ways they have yet to recover from and the last time they tried it on any sitting Tory Prime Minister (Major) they ended up losing 178 seats in the subsequent general election.

        I’d have thought saying ‘third time lucky’ (especially with UKIP waiting in the wings) is something only the most risk junky Tories would attempt. Cameron is their until he loses. Now whether that is a referendum or an election is another question. Cameron will have to lose before they get rid of them.

        • AlecM

          Splitting the EU-phile Cameroons would make room for UKIP….

    • cambridgeelephant

      Very well put.

    • Mike

      Exactly, the individual members of Lib, Lab Con do not decide what the policies regarding the the EU are, its their self serving leaders such as Cameron , Milliband and Cloggy who decide party policy.

      Turkeys like Cameron don’t vote for Xmas and the “turkeys” heading the LibLabCon compact who decide the future of the UK don’t either – FOR THE MOMENT !

  • Blindsideflanker

    May be while there is a conspiracy of silence from our media, who have never been very forward in asking difficult questions about their ‘project’ , but I have a feeling that can’t go on for very long before someone asks…..

    ‘Mr Cameron you keep on talking about foreigners getting benefits, but I don’t see anything in your ‘renegotiation’ that seeks to limit immigration? ‘

    ‘Oh you aren’t going to do anything about that, well where can I vote to get out?’

  • ButcombeMan

    The guarantee of the rise of UKIP is that the Tories can never again win an election, even if Scotland goes it will be tricky.
    Do you really think Charles that Cameron intended that?

    In any case your blog was out of date before it was written. Farage does not want the issue to be single party issue.

    In the unlikely event of a referendum it will be a cross party debate. Milliband will have to get the fence wire out of his bum crack and tell us exactly why socialists are defending something that is impoverishing millions.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Yes, UKIP is plotting to steal everybody’s votes, and that’s been obvious from the start. They haven’t shown a trace of willingness to turn party partisan, cut deals with individual parties, or anything of that nature. Even that deal Farage mentioned the other day was directed to all. UKIP is following the classic populist path of lumping the establishment together and attacking them collectively. It’s fine strategy, and leaves UKIP with options, and allows them to leverage the new EUSSR parliament intake.

    • Kitty MLB

      Way over the top.What the country does’nt want is any
      coalitions. What the country wants is a good education
      system, welfare dealt with, the economy improving etc
      And a safe pair of hands in a crisis.
      Nigel Farage thrives in the EU with its battles etc
      I have always been supportive of UKIP but
      quite honestly, this EU election is just that
      not the general election.

      • ButcombeMan

        I am analysing over the top eh? Nobody knows how things will play now. If UKIP wins handsomely, it may encourage more emboldened followers. I agree I do not like coalitions but assuming as you seem to thatTory deserters to UKIP will return for a General Election is a very risky strategy.

        People who have been called “fruicakes and nutters” or some such idiocy, may well bear a grudge.
        Cameron is a political fool. He risks and has risked damaging the Tories permanently.
        Further he is just not trusted. He did that.

      • Wessex Man

        Time for you to drink the coffee and take a good deep breath, Call me Dave has had it, I just hope that the Tories don’t get rid of him yet as we have ambitions better served with him in postion and Miliband leading the Labour Party,. oh happy days!

        • Kitty MLB

          What a clever little purple plotter. Send Dave, he with the furrowed brow, some smoked kippers for breakfast.
          And you have council seats now. But if Lovely Nigel
          popped to Westminster he would still need a cushion to
          sit upon. And he’s been very useful to the main parties as well.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    This blogger comes off like that blustering buck rabbit in Watership Down, ranting that “dogs aren’t dangerous” (to rabbits) just before a big angry dog runs over him and has him for lunch.

    • Kaine

      That’s not what happens to Woundwort, and that’s not the tone of that scene. I suggest you revisit it.

      • the viceroy’s gin

        Yes, that’s what happens to the blustering buck rabbit, and that is the tone, and that is a (close) quote. I suggest you provide documentation of your contrary assertions.

        • Kaine

          Woundwort says “Dogs aren’t dangerous!” because he’s a huge and vicious creature who has killed dogs before. He is not blustering, he’s deadly serious. When he turns and sees the hound at the end he doesn’t get his head ripped off, he charges it. We aren’t told what happens, indeed a point is made that they never find his body, and he becomes a bogey-man to scare younger rabbits with in the new colony.

          The farmer’s dog does kill other rabbits, and indeed probably kills Woundwort, but the scene you described does not exist in Watership Down.

          • the viceroy’s gin

            Yes, it does exist, and you just agreed with me that it exists, lad.

            The blustering buck rabbit says “dogs aren’t dangerous” because he’s a violent psychopath with no concept of anything but violence as the means to his ends, which involve obtaining and exercising totalitarian power, much like the above blogger and his bubble mates, thus drawing the above analogy.

            No, the book didn’t mention that this blusterer had killed dogs before. He’s deadly serious about being a violent psychopath, yes, and that’s how the other rabbits eventually killed him. They turned his own violent psychopathology against him, led him and the dog together, where his bloody and confrontational madness would take over, and then let the dog do their work for them. It was brilliant.

            Yes, the stupid blowhard got his head ripped off, same as all the other rabbits in his Stasi shortly before. They don’t find his body because the dog had it for lunch. I’ve seen hunting dogs swallow down rabbits like party snacks, and even in this mythology, that’s what happened to this psychopath… he died bloody.

            But good of you to agree that the scene involved a bent zealot blustering some impossible nonsense, and then getting steamrolled by an unforgiving reality. It’s just like the socialist EUSSRphiles will be experiencing, ultimately.

            • Kaine

              No, Woundwort did not get his head ripped off. That scene does not exist. That you can’t even concede an irrelevant error on your part says everything about you.

              • the viceroy’s gin

                Of course he got his head ripped off, just like all the other antagonist rabbits. And the dog returned to his farm with his family, and the good rabbits lived happily ever after, psychopath free.

                That you agree with all of this and then stick stubbornly to your first contention that the scene doesn’t exist while agreeing that it exists says everything about you. You are mixed up child.

                By the way, you and that blustering psychopath rabbit have a lot in common, much like the blogger.

  • flippit

    I’ve change my mind from an out to a probably better to stay in but I don’t think it’s anything to do with David Cameron, more to do with the Scottish Independence debate. Looking at that from the outside, the disadvantages of unravelling something so closely integrated and the narrowness of the nationalist view has made me reflect on leaving the EU. I now think reform is better than exit if we can get a compromise.

    • Ricky Strong

      Scotland isn’t the 6th largest economy on the planet though.

    • Smithersjones2013

      So because the cancer is interwoven with your flesh you wouldn’t have it removed? Good thinking batman!

      The only ‘reform’ will be ‘ever closer union’ (i.e. loss of democracy, loss of sovereignty, loss of nationhood)

    • sfin

      Finally! a rational ‘conservative’ argument!

      Bravo, sir, I respect your viewpoint – although I would argue, in terms of “unravelling something so closely integrated” that that ship sailed a long time ago!

    • Andy

      I doubt very much that Cameron (or anyone else frankly) will get any ‘compromise’ worthy of the name. You might like to characterise the debate in terms of nationalism, but it is actually one of Liberty and a growing totalitarian construct.

      • global city

        All of the groups that will form the better off Out campaign should make a big matrix of all of the powers and exclusive competences that the eu now has and cross off the minute ‘concessions’ and ‘reforms’ Dave will pretend to have won back.

        That way it would be plain how little he wants.

    • HookesLaw

      The salient point being that there will be negotiatiojs and a referendum. But only under the tories. Even if Labour were to promise negotiations – does anybody trust them to come up with a good deal?
      As it is with a Labour govt we would never get a referendum. Labour would probably take us closer in. Lets face it Miliband stabbed his brother – do we trust him to offer a referendum on any of his negotiations?

      • the viceroy’s gin

        …suggest if you’re that terrified of your Lab soulmates, lad, that you not split the UKIP vote.

      • Smithersjones2013

        There will be no meaningful negotiations because it is not either in Brussels interests or on their timetable. Brussels will fit it in during their timetable when they see fit and likely will do it only if they are guaranteed a supplicant British Prime Minister.

        So either Cameron will roll over and have his belly scratched or there will be no negotiation.

  • sfin

    Bravo Charles – political research – and analysis, like this usually costs a pretty penny.

    UKIP will thank you for it.

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