Coffee House

Labour on track to beat Ukip in Wythenshawe & Sale East

6 February 2014

Will Ukip make great gains in the Wythenshawe & Sale East by-election next week? According to the latest polling from Lord Ashcroft, the party has increased its vote share by 12 points since the last general election but are far off from winning. Labour is still very much on track to hold the seat, given a 17-point increase in their vote share:

Although Ukip has increased its vote share fivefold since 2010, it looks unlikely at this stage that the party will sweep through and take the seat. Despite rumours of shipping in a team from London to run the short campaign, they don’t appear to have made much of a mark on the ground. Under half of those polled said they had received leaflets through the door, 12 per cent had seen posters or billboards and only six per cent have received a knock on the door from Ukip.

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There’s also some interesting detail on why some of the people of Wythenshawe & Sale East are intending to vote Ukip. 90 per cent of those stated they are doing so as ‘a general protest to show I’m unhappy with all the main parties at the moment’. 78 per cent also stated they will vote Ukip as ‘a message that I’m unhappy with the party I usually support nationally’. This adds credence to the view that those voting Ukip are making a point about the state of our politics, not to decide who runs their country. This poses a problem for Farage and co in 2015 as that protest could well fade away by then.

As Lord Ashcroft points out in his analysis, a minority of voters in Wythenshawe & Sale East said they’d prefer Ed Miliband as Prime Minister — despite the significant increases in Labour and Ukip’s vote. Although by-elections are volatile and tend to focus on local issues, it would be surprising if some of the trends seen here don’t factor on a national stage in 15 months time.

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  • Northerner1001

    This was always going to be a comfortable Labour hold, Labour have camapaigned very hard & Paul Goggins was a very popular MP. At the start of the campaign UKIP were saying it was going to be their biggest campaign ever(This was on their own website) but i suspect from very early on they’ve realised that Manchester & it’s suburbs are simply not UKIP territory, indeed UKIP simply are not as strong in the NW compared to other areas. I did try pointing this FACT out to many UKIPPERS but got the usual abuse so let this be a lesson, UKIP seriously under estimate Labour’s ground game at their peril. Yet again UKIP can talk the talk but as of yet can’t walk the walk

  • foxoles

    Just in case anyone hasn’t seen it, here is UKIP candidate John Bickley’s profile:

    He is genuinely a ‘local lad made good’, brought up in Wythenshawe and now a successful businessman. His Manifesto for Manchester (link from the above page) is also well worth a read.

  • Two Bob

    Here we have a bunch of losers with the collective IQ of a toothbrush voting for the disastrous Labour party because their Dads and Grandads did so with no conception whatsoever of the real world.

    • Denis_Cooper

      Insults may not be the best way to win people over from Labour to support whichever party you prefer. What do you think?

  • Tim Reed

    “Labour on track to beat Ukip in Wythenshawe & Sale East”

    That headline alone is an indication of the extent to which the political landscape has changed in the last few years.

    Pre 2010, there would have been no assumption that UKIP would be anywhere near close to winning a by-election, or even be in the running. That’s no longer the case.

  • Chris lancashire

    UKIP are a very entertaining party.

  • Jez

    Can someone please look into the postal voting system and why Labour seem to have utterly harnessed this?

    Is everything 100% with this?

  • Gary

    “There’s also some interesting detail on why some of the people of Wythenshawe & Sale East are intending to vote Ukip. 90 per cent of those stated they are doing so as ‘a general protest to show I’m unhappy with all the main parties at the moment’. 78 per cent also stated they will vote Ukip as ‘a message that I’m unhappy with the party I usually support nationally’.”

    Yes, and 85% of them also stated that “They are the party I’d like to win the next election nationally”.

    Being unhappy with the main parties does not preclude you from voting for UKIP from positive motives too.

  • dalai guevara

    All this hot air, a l l this hot air. all t h i s hot air. all this h o t air, all this hot a i r!
    None of you lot have ever been to Wythenshawe have you? To the pretty decent red brick modern hospital, to the excellent (now defunct) Habitat outlet store. None of you. You South Eastern Farage groupies have no idea how ENGLAND works, never mind Britain. 17%/60%?

    • Two Bob

      Thats funny you mentioned the word ‘works’. Us southerners tend to work….

  • Smithersjones2013

    Despite rumours of shipping in a team from London to run the short campaign, they don’t appear to have made much of a mark on the ground. Under half of those polled said they had received leaflets through the door, 12 per cent had seen posters or billboards and only six per cent have received a knock on the door from Ukip.

    So lets’ compare this analysis from Coffee Houses very own in house troll against that of Lord Ashcroft (from the link):

    As for the campaign on the ground, UKIP are making their presence felt.
    Nearly half (47 per cent) of voters in the constituency say the party
    has put literature through their door, compared to 63 per cent from
    Labour, 35 per cent from the Conservatives and 18 per cent from the Lib
    Dems. They are almost keeping pace with the bigger parties when it comes
    to direct mail and street campaigning – though, like the Tories, are
    further behind when it comes to knocking on doors.

    Hmmmm so the Tories are doing far worse than UKIP on the campaigning front. I wonder why Payne didn’t mention that? Sounds to me like UKIP are the only serious opposition to Labour in the constituency.

    • OriginalChris

      Well countered, SJ.

    • Two Bob

      The problem is with ‘knocking on doors’ is that most people are at work so the only people they will be talking to are benefits scroungers and OAPs…..

      • Conway

        Well, the latter are more likely to vote.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    “…for this poll I adopted the approach of prompting for UKIP along with
    the three main parties in the initial voting intention question. There
    remain good reasons not to do this in national polls, but it makes sense
    in a by-election like this one…”


    Why does it make sense in this election, Lord Cameroon? Because the Camerluvvies are losing to UKIP here?

    Perhaps you best drop your charade, lad, and begin addressing UKIP at least at par with the Lib Dumbs.

    And you really should be ashamed of yourself, having the temerity to make the above statement. You do not serve the electorate well at all, sir. You are an agent of distraction and confusion, operating this way .

  • Two Bob

    If Cameron does not buck his ideas up that protest will stay. Dont you understand why there is one?

    The big question is Lib Dem lost deposit: yes or no?

    • sfin

      Good question – and a prophetic one methinks! With all of the parties scrabbling for the mythical ‘centre ground’, the Libdumps have become an irrelevance – and now that we know what they’re like when they get a sniff of power, even more so!

  • Doggie Roussel

    Without wishing to sneer at or patronise the Labour voters of Wythenshawe or Sale East, they must be completely Barking if they continue to support the Labour Part after what they have done to this country in the last 15 years or so.

    The NHS, the one legacy of which Labour should be proud and seek to foster, has been left in tatters.

    Blair and Brown, who should have been in the dock at Nuremberg, conspired to wreck the country’s economy. We now realise that Blair had his mind on Oriental matters and probably threw in the towel to concentrate on money-making and the delights of the East… a true socialist!

    The Cyclopean psychopath, Brown has retired to receive anger management therapy and have all those staples removed from his hands, a result of his many phone-fliging tantrums.

    For God’s sake, voters of Wythenshawe and Sale, see the light and vote for the only party that puts the interests of Britain above all else. Cameron has promised £100 million to flood relief in our own country.

    That is 100th of the current budget for foreign aid, as has been pointed out by Nigel Farage.


    • sfin

      Hear! Hear! Good post!

    • Makroon

      It is the local effect – Paul Goggins was that rare event in today’s Brown gang Labour party, a decent man and an excellent constituency MP.

    • BarkingAtTreehuggers

      ‘We’ are ‘pouring’ (!) money into China (?!) and India ?
      Where did you get your economics degree, pal? A Poly no doubt.

      The money is coming from China – all you need to do is wait for the Chicoms to allow their populace to leave the country, we are waiting and will welcome them with open arms.

      • Doggie Roussel

        I know one shouldn’t believe everything one reads in the papers, but here is but one example to refute your glib comment,

        I read Classics, actually… not many polys teach that, I believe.

        • BarkingAtTreehuggers

          Classics – the express – classic!
          Punters take note.

          • Doggie Roussel

            You really are a cretinous a……e, Treebugger… I simply looked up Foreign aid on Google and copied the first reference to refute your pathetic and futile statement…

            So, I suggest you get back to the Grauniad, where your instincts clearly belong.

            I won’t ask about your own education, which is quite obviously lacking… I very much doubt that it was Eton and Christchurch..

            • BarkingAtTreehuggers

              Babes, my instinct tells me you know nowt about any things financial and bingo – you confirm that by reading classics and the ‘classic’ Express which you regularly pick up in some Poly library no doubt. So let’s just acknowledge here that I was bang on the money.

              Your initial post above is riddled with so much inconsistent gibberish which I seriously cannot be bothered to get into further. Too thick is the fog clouding your cranium. Your outpourings will only deemed true in some parallel universe, which, how shall I put it, must be located in some both imaginary and socio-culturally irrelevant shire far far away from up and coming Sale (the Cheshire for the aspirational who can’t afford Altrincham but can longer stand the hustle and bustle of Manc central). If you chaps care for some proper intelligence, stop piling up in cycling arenas in front of your own rent-a-mob and get out more, d’oh.

              • Doggie Roussel

                BarkingAtTreehuggers…. a complete prat and thicko, sans pareil…. there isn’t one logical or sequential statement in your recent post.

  • Denis_Cooper

    How about another article analysing whether Labour is on track to beat the Tories in Wythenshawe & Sale East?

    Whether the Tories might win is not even touched upon in this article; as it seems the author is completely discounting that as a possibility, and as he wouldn’t want Labour to win, wouldn’t it make sense for him to publicly urge the Tory party to stand down their candidate and advise people to vote UKIP?

    Seriously: look at the bar charts and see how a great slug of LibDem support has transferred across to Labour, 17% lost by the one and gained by the other, and ask yourselves what chance the Tories will have of winning a Commons majority with the conventional anti-Tory vote so consolidated on just one of the rival parties rather than being split between two.

    • BarkingAtTreehuggers

      This is it — this is the post we were all waiting for. Spot on analytical thinking. The game plan is as follows:

      May 2014 — UKIP maximises the vote at EU elections, leading to
      September 2014 — Scottish independence, leading to a reduction of Westminster seats to 600 odd, which will lead to
      May 2015 — a deal between UKIP and Tories (prior to the elections) exactly as you outline to minimise the effects of a vote split and hence a UKIP/Tory coalition (!)

  • callingallcomets

    Seb, the resident Speccie specialist on UKIP doing serious “journalistic” legwork again – by cutting and pasting a tip from Guido’s right hand sidebar. I think we could all save a lot of time and money by not having by elections, just let Ashcroft run his polls.

    Still, one thing is certain, whatever the result Seb will declare it a disappointment for UKIP…

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …I think the kid parks cars down at CCHQ for gratuities, as well. One hand washes the other, as they say.

  • Bert

    Baboons, red rosettes etc etc

  • OriginalChris

    Labour may be on track to win but there are a significant number of voters in Wythenshawe, and in the wider electorate, who find that Farage’s common sense message resonates. The latest statement with regard to the Somerset floods and cutting our foreign aid budget and diverting it to our own people in need is spot on. Farage puts our other leaders to shame, I believe.

    • HookesLaw

      Cheap opportunism. He makes a good socialist.

      • Wessex Man

        i thought that was Call me Dave lovey, how’s that referendum doing now by the way?

      • southerner

        Well you’d know, Hookey.

  • Jupiter

    I suppose this is another Labour rotten borough where the stupid voters would vote for a monkey if it was wearing a red rosette

    • ButcombeMan

      Post code M22 has a huge number of unemployed and unemployable. A far scatterring of thieves, vagabonds & drug dealers. So in large part core Labour territory.

      • Barry Scarfe

        That says a lot about the Tory Party then. If people are unemployed does that REALLY make them AUTOMATIC Labour voters? Perhaps, large numbers of unemployed people don’t vote Tory because so many within the Tory Party have disgusting and frankly shameful attitudes towards anyone who is not employed or at least that is the impression which is given?

        • Colonel Mustard

          Yeah, yeah. Everyone who is not a tribal Labourite knows the truth.

          Falkirk, Falkirk, Falkirk as Tony Blair might have said.

        • ButcombeMan

          Permanent WILLFUL unemployment of the type I have in mind tends to be associated with those who, if they vote at all, vote Labour.

          The unemployable crack & potheads of Wythenshaw (M22) will probably mostly not vote.

          The hard working decent people there (and there are many, there is a lot of new private property on the fringes) will more likely vote.

          UKIP have it all to play for in appealing to those people.

    • Doggie Roussel

      Only a homosexual black monkey !

    • Colonel Mustard

      It boggles the mind that anyone would vote for rotten Labour after the experience of 1997-2010 and with most of Brown’s Gang sitting gurning on the opposition front bench.

      Labour offer nothing but dividing the country into factions at perpetual war with each other, men against women, religion against religion, race against race, gays against straights, poor against rich, state schools against free schools, married against non-marrieds, young against old, devolved against united. They stoke up the sectarian angst with stupidity like their hate speech and equality laws that result in more hate and more inequality and then have the gall to speak of ‘One Nation’. The left wing nutjobs and indoctrinated thickos who support this strife should be ashamed of themselves.

      A party of negativity talking down any worthwhile attempt to rekindle aspiration whose only real policy is the destruction of everything half decent, discomforting the Tories as much as possible in the process.

      • Mynydd

        The front benches during the last PMQs highlighted “men against women” and it wasn’t the Labour bench that was all men.
        “religion against religion” it is Mr Cameron/Hague who are supporting the muslin groups in Syria who are kidnapping and murdering Christians.
        I will not go through the rest of your rambling list, but for the sake of argument why doesn’t the opinion polls back you up.
        Lord Ashcroft’s poll 2nd Feb: Conservative 32%, Lab 41%, LD 11, UKIP 9%
        Again the graph above give Conservative a loss of 12% Labour a gain of 17% on the 2010 general election results. That is a change of 29% in favour of the Labour party and Mr Miliband. I wait your next tirade on Mr Miliband.

  • HookesLaw

    The reasons for voting UKIP in by-elections seem to be the same as the ones for voting LD in the past. A pretty rootless level of support.

    • AnotherDave

      A higher level of support than the Conservatives or the LDs. That’s a good base to build from. :-)

      • HookesLaw

        Don’t make me laugh. Build a new labour majority more like by splitting the right wing vote. Vote UKIP get Labour.

        • AnotherDave

          If UKIP have more support than the Conservatives, surely the Conservatives are the splitters?

          • Wessex Man

            Of course but it’ll take some time to convert Hooky.

        • Smithersjones2013

          So exactly what are the Tories doing then. Hooky? After all if you believe the spin we’re on the way to the land of milk and honey. George has saved the economy, the deficit is falling GDP rising ever more rapidly, you keep telling us we’ve all got more disposable income to throw around, unemployment’s falling, crimes falling, immigrations falling., Gove’s sorting out education, IDS is sorting out benefits. Hunts turning the NHS around. The world is a wonderful place (well except for Somerset and that is obviously a Labour peer’s fault) thanks to the Tories.

          Yet once again the Tory vote has collapsed. Down 12 points with their doughty coalition partners the Libdems collapsing even more down 17 points.The government losing 29 points vote share in a constituency. That must be close to a record?

          I put the vote share changes through Electoral Calculus and it gave Labour a majority of 244 with the Tories losing 155 seats.

          What I find bizarre though is how it can all be the fault of a party that hasn’t yet managed to get an MP.into Parliament. How can that be?

        • Mynydd

          According to Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the 6th Feb, that is, only one week before the election, if you add the Conservative’s 14% to the Lib Den’s 5% to the UKIP’s 15% the total is still less that Labour’s 61%. I would say vote UKIP and push Mr Cameron’s Conservative Party into third place

    • Wessex Man

      You go on saying that Hooky, just your candidate keeps your deposit or you’ll never hear the end of it!

  • AnotherDave

    “[UKIP] don’t appear to have made much of a mark on the ground.”

    UKIP are second only to Labour in their campaigning numbers here, and there is a limit to how much can be accomplished in a week!

    (Page 12 / table 10 on the link below.)

  • AnotherDave

    “Despite rumours of shipping in a team from London to run the short campaign”

    UKIP have the same core team for every by-election.

  • sfin

    I do wish the tories would stop splitting the UKIP vote!

  • Alexsandr

    more dodgy Ashcroft stats. but looks like UKIP could come second again.

  • Agrippina

    Good, if you folks keep saying labour are going to win their voters will stay away and Ukip should take it.

    • huktra

      Should be a shoe in for UKIP.
      Labour have been complacent.

      • Agrippina

        I agree, labour have neglected the voters for many years. It has some run down areas and could do with someone prepared to fight for them, and set about improving their lives.

        They have tried labour and it hasn’t really worked out, now they are considering Ukip. Remember voters general election next year, so if you feel you don’t like your MP, you can always vote for someone else next year.

      • robertsonjames

        A “shoe in” for a protest party that has never yet won a Westminster MP even in a mid-term by-election and which has successfully maintained its record of never having won a seat in the House of Commons through the last four general elections?

        I’ll have whatever you’re smoking.

        Labour will hold Wythenshawe with consummate ease. If the Kippers were genuinely in a very strong position, Farage, overwhelmingly their best-known candidate and still their best shot at ever winning a seat, would have stood. But Blazer HQ knows they haven’t a prayer even against a faceless Socialist apparatchik so, for all the necessary bombast about rivalling Labour in the north, they’ve put up John Bickley, about whom no-one has ever heard, to take one for the team.

        • Makroon

          Presumably, there will be a strong Labour vote in sympathy with their excellent and popular departed MP, rather than his replacement.

          • robertsonjames

            Dunno. The sympathy vote is extremely unpredictable. Even when sitting MPs have been killed in tragic circumstances (eg. Michael Colvin at Romsey in 2000, who died in a blaze, or Ian Gow at Eastbourne, murdered by the IRA in 1990) the voters’ sympathies did not extent to meekly returning the same party’s preferred replacement: In both cases the Lib Dems took what had been very safe Tory seats in the resulting by-elections (even though in the Colvin case the Tories were not in government) and retained them at the subsequent general election. Evidently sympathy is often less important to voters’ behaviour than political motivation, even in the most distressing of circumstances.

        • Northerner1001

          UKIP’s John Bickley, their ‘local’ candidate who lives in Nantwich,Cheshire & who also took £100000 in a grant from the EU for his business which then went bust yet now he pours scorn on the EU, hypocrite!
          UKIP need Tory votes aplenty to make an impact here yet they appoint an ex Labour man as their candidate, UKIP’s strategy in the North West is very flawed

          • AnotherDave

            Given that the latest poll gives Labour 61% of the vote, there are clearly more Labour votes to chase.

      • Northerner1001

        Labour haven’t been complacent at all & this poll proves that. They’ve campaigned very hard so far & will until the polls close nest Thursday, UKIP were nowhere to be seen in Wythenshawe before this byelection & will be nowhere to be seen after it either, just a bunch of chancers

        • gerontius


          • robertsonjames


            The reality is that it’s tactically essential for Kippers to bang on about sweeping up lots of Labour voters as well as Tories. After all, admitting openly that they are largely a threat to the Conservatives but not to Labour, and so are very likely to put Miliband and Balls in power next year, would hardly help them among the right-wingers who are their core. But those are the facts, however much the Faragistas don’t like them being highlighted.

            Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll of the Kipper voters confirms this yet again: 45% of current intending UKIP voters supported the Tories in 2010 and only 8% voted Labour. That’s more than five times as many ex-Conservative as ex-Labour voters UKIP is now attracting. And it’s a perfect illustration of why Farage won’t be standing in Wythenshawe this year, nor in any Labour-held seats at the general election for that matter: for all the understandable spin, Blazer HQ knows their best results will always come in Tory marginals where there are lots of Tory voters to harvest (though much the most likely outcome is merely helping the Labour or Lib Dem candidate actually take the seat, as in the past, eg. Corby last year and Cornwall North and Wells in 2010).

            I realise that UKIP supporters like to think anyone who points out the electoral facts of life is a “shill”. But that’s because Kippers divide neatly into those who are blissfully politically ignorant and don’t care to be disabused of their fantasies and those who understand the facts full well and don’t want it broadcast that UKIP’s only influence at Westminster next May will be having increased the number of passionately Europhile Labour and Lib Dem MPs at the expense of good Eurosceptic Tories.

      • ArchiePonsonby

        Might even be a “shoo-in”!

    • greggf

      Indeed Agrippina, the loony-left are clearly in charge everywhere and the “trio of troughers” do nothing!

      Someone wil try to shift the blame onto the EU and I’m not defending it but Britain’s government is surely the most inept and politically corrupt since “records began”!

      • Northerner1001

        ‘Troughers’ – errr look no further than UKIP’s candidate here,John Bickley, who took a £100000 grant from the EU for his business,which went bust,yet now he pours scorn on the EU, what a hypocrite!

        • greggf

          UKIP are not above crtiticsm.

    • Northerner1001

      That shows your complete ignorance about Wythenshawe, It’s a multi cultural area so UKIP fighhting the same anti immigrant campaign as they did in Eastleigh will fail badly. It’s all about the cost of living here on the doorstep

      • gerontius

        Then you’ve got nothing to worry about.

      • AnotherDave

        Immigrants can be, and are, against further immigration.

        Immigration _is_ a cost of living issue.

  • Robert Taggart

    DOH !…
    Liebore winning in Wythy ? well tha never !
    There be but two syllables in Liebore – that makes them easier for the dregs to understand in such ghettos !

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