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Will a Euro election defeat for Cameron lead to a Tory-Ukip pact?

16 January 2014

The Conservative party has never come third in a nationwide election. But as today’s YouGov poll in The Sun shows, they are on course to be beaten into third place by Ukip in the European elections:

Now, European elections are normally an after-thought in British politics. As even David Cameron admits, most of us can’t remember who our MEPs are and almost two-thirds of us don’t bother to vote for them. But as I say in the column this week, coming third behind Ukip will send the Tory party into a panic. In the weeks after the result, there’ll be calls for an electoral pact with Nigel Farage and his party, demands for a move to an explicitly ‘outist’ European policy and for a string of more distinctively right-wing policies.

The crucial question is how long this panic lasts. If it dominates the entire year, then it will deny Cameron the time and space he needs to make his general election case. But if the Tories regain their nerve quickly, then the improving economic news — after tax, median incomes are now rising faster than prices — gives them a chance to use 2014 to rein in Labour’s lead.

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  • James Allen

    This is why UKIP draws support:

    And not just HS2; the Green Investment Bank (£3bn wasted on industrial carbon-reduction projects that industry doesn’t want), Big Society Capital; billions frittered away on failed IT projects, consultants fees, quangos etc etc. All the while you sack thousands of our brave troops and force others to go part-time even though they risk their lives for our country. You traitors!

    We are SICK TO DEATH of money being transferred from the working and middle classes to the Westminster elite and their cronies in the public, private and “third” sectors. We CANNOT support a Government that is this IRRESPONSIBLE with the public finances, which sees an economy gorging on 0.5% interest rates, high inflation (nobody believes the Government’s figures, they know what’s happening to their wallets) and excessive borrowing to produce anaemic levels of growth in the consumptive sector, and calls it a f*cking recovery!!!

    IT IS AN OUTRAGE!!!!!! I am in favour of a REVOLUTION in this country…

    UKIP all the way………..!!!

  • Jim_Watford

    What on earth would UKIP want a pact with the poisonous Tories for? our main strength is not being on of the usual three. UKIP isn’t the lost tribe of the Tory party, most of our members have never voted Tory before and those that have switched for a reason. The Tories have made their bed, now they get to lay in it, they can’t expect UKIPs “Racists, Fruitcakes and Loons” to come to their rescue.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    Heh, so the Cameroons are talking “pact” now, are they? That’s funny. Pathetic, but funny, too.

    There is no reason for UKIP to support a pact. There is no upside for them, only downside.The Camerluvvies want a pact, certainly, because they know good and well that Dave’s head is headed for a spike, exactly 15.75 months from now, and the only possible salvation for them is a pact with UKIP. But that’s not going to happen.

    The Cameroons must face up to the fact that Dave’s head is going on that spike, one way or another, sooner or later, now or in 15.75 months time. But, if they themselves put his head up there on that spike, now, or shortly after the MEP election, they may be able to salvage something come the general election. It’s going to happen anyway. They might as well be proactive.

  • Liberty

    Cameron failed in 2010 because of UKIP. If they fail in 2015 and let Labour/LDs in it will be down to UKIP. Do well in Europe by all means – I’ll vote for you then – but not in 2015. Vote UKIP, get Labour.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      …then suggest you not split the UKIP vote, if that’s your concern.

    • Dodgy Geezer

      …Vote UKIP, get Labour…

      It is the Conservatives tragedy, as I specifically told my Conservative MP, that I really don’t think I could tell the difference between a current Conservative and a current Labour administration…

      • Colonel Mustard

        Sadly it is a matter of degrees. If you think Cameron is bad take a look at Labour’s front bench and imagine them in power over us. Pay special attention to the “ban everything” wimmen of Labour and imagine Yvette Cooper as Home Secretary.

        • Dodgy Geezer

          Alas, Colonel! I agree with your summation of our current politicians. But I don’t see them as ‘being in power over us’.

          Politicians may ‘come to power’. But for a long time now I’ve noted that when they do, beyond a few headline projects which usually get quietly withdrawn, they really don’t seem to do anything.

          The real power seems to reside in the unelected Civil Service. Remember Identity Cards, for example? No one wanted those except the Home Office and the companies lobbying them. And yet politicians of both sides ‘supported’ them. The idea was introduced by John Major, then suppressed by the new Labour government, then introduced by Labour, then suppressed by the Conservatives…

          This sort of thing only makes sense if it’s NOT the politicians doing the proposing, but the civil servants and lobbyists. What politicians say in Opposition is no guide to what will happen when they get into ‘power’ – what will actually happen is the the bureaucratic state will just keep rolling on as it has always done, and a political name change will make very little difference at all…

    • Jim_Watford

      Vote Tory, Labour or Lib Dem and get the E.U. UKIP is the only alternative to to E.U governance.

  • Richard N

    Anyone who believes YouGov polls, when they relate to Europe or UKIP, is very naive indeed.

    The ‘massaging’ that YouGov does on UKIP poll ratings on absolutely any subject enormously reduces the poll ratings that they report. The massive gap between the average poll ratings of UKIP in local elections throughout the last year demonstrates that very clearly.

    I predict UKIP will win the EU elections with ease. And I suspect that the private polling of the Tories and Labour is telling them that UKIP is, nationally, already riding at around 23 – 25% – which is why they’ve all jumped on the anti-immigration band wagon.

  • Smithersjones2013

    If you look at the vote shares for those absolutely certain to vote it is even better for UKIP. Those figures are.give you Lab 32 UKIP 30 Con 21 LD 6.

    UKIP voters are far more motivated currently than any other group. That is always a big advantage!

  • JoeDM

    UKIP need to avoid the Tories like the plague.

    We all know that Cameron and his cronies are pro-EU. The only result would be that the Tories would use UKIP for their own pro-EU ends and Cameron’s survival.

    Cameron must go.

  • Donafugata

    It is true that in the past few people bother to vote in European elections but clearly most people have become aware that it is the EU that is responsible for our inability to control our borders.

    The grotesque demographic changes that have taken place in the last fifteen years have now reached tipping point.

    This year I’m sure we will all relish the opportunity to vote in the May election and give the bloodiest of noses to the three culprits.

    In a way, it’s the nearest thing we will ever get to an in- out referendum so let’s show ’em.

  • Holly

    Personally, I hope that the people who vote for Farage in the up coming Euro elections aren’t putting too much faith in what he can achieve over there, or are too disappointed when he ends up either causing havoc, or is unable to achieve anything.

    • JackyTreehorn

      The lady doth protest too much, me thinks.

  • RavenRandom

    Europe votes are protest votes. That’s all they’ve ever been. That aside, it is silly for the more centre-right and right wing British parties to allow Labour to win the general election on their odious 35% calculation. A pact might well be the better servant of democracy.

    • an ex-tory voter

      With Cameron still at the helm? As Mrs Brown might say “no fecking chance”.

    • Cyril Sneer

      The Tory party is no longer a right wing party.

    • Smithersjones2013

      Is that the latest line from CCHQ?

      Vote for us. Its silly not to

      Your problem is that your leadership has spent much of the last five years claiming they are the heir to Blair and are centrists rather than of the right.

      As you sow so shall you reap

    • berosos_bubos

      The Tory party is the unionist party with other socialist states.

    • Colonel Mustard

      A Labour win would certainly sound the death knell for democracy here. Three imitating parties are bad enough but Labour’s aspiration is a single party state for the most extreme and radical of them.

    • JackyTreehorn

      In the past I think you would be correct but too many things are happening in Britain whether it’s immigration, the European courts, Muslim extremism or the green madness. People are waking up to what’s been happening and they see this as possibly their last chance to change direction. The election, any election cant come soon enough for us and I speak as a life long Tory.
      If you are happy with what’s been occurring over the past 20 years then vote as you have over the last 20 years, cos that is what you will get.

  • Tom Tom

    Euro Elections are on a List System so it is a chance for voters to state their feelings about the “Conservative” Party

  • Not Voting For You

    It’s time to abandon voting for any of the three main parties and starting again. Voting for anyone else is better than playing this high stakes game that the electorate must always lose.

    Growing numbers of ex-supporters of the three main parties are taking a pledge not to vote for them again…

    • Donafugata

      Many thanks for the link, I feel better already.

  • Denis_Cooper

    No, I don’t think it would lead to a Tory-UKIP pact, however much those leading the Tory party might crave one. There is very limited scope for a pact between a party which is sincerely committed to our national sovereignty and democracy, UKIP, and a Tory party which long ago fell under the control of people who don’t give a damn about our national sovereignty and democracy.

  • Daniel Maris

    WTF does “after tax, median incomes are now rising faster than prices” mean? Presumably that before tax they are not rising faster than prices! – which must mean taxes are actually decreasing at the moment… hmmm… how about some citation for such claims?

    • HookesLaw

      Tax allowances are rising.

  • Kitty MLB

    Absolutely not- although I am Conservative – That party is now the Camservative Party- they utterly deplore being called that.
    I can be totally sure that UKIP will not do a deal with that imposter, shiny faced
    leader, the cuckoo in the Conservative nest.
    Nigel Farage is politically far closer to Thatcher, and we know Cameron
    has spent years trying to demolish her party.
    As someone else has said Farage has seen through Cameron.
    Also as we know the only poll that matters is the one just before an election-

    • Holly

      You still don’t get it do you.

      • peterooo

        …said the limbless Knight in the Monty Python sketch.

  • Hexhamgeezer

    ..don’t forget those Lib Dems extremists who polled at 10% – who are they going to bail out (sarc)

  • Mynydd

    Mr Cameron down fall will be those foot soldiers lost to UKIP. These long time Conservative activists will now be pushing purple not blue through letter boxes.
    Mr Cameron failed to win an overall majority at the last general election, then didn’t have the bottle to form a minority government, but jumped into bed with left wing Mr Clegg and is Lib Dem party. Lets face it, Mr Cameron will join with anyone, including Mr Miliband, to stay in government. To him the conservative party was a means to an end, not a life long commitment.

    • the viceroy’s gin

      Correct. Call Me Dave and the Millipede will likely be forming a coalition government following the 2015 election. The LD’s will be nearly destroyed, and unable to provide enough to form a coalition.

      But the socialist LibLabCon axis will do whatever it takes to lock out UKIP, and thus a LabCon coalition is the likely outcome.

      • Geronimo von Huxley

        I agree. That is indeed the most likely outcome. Given the UKIP demographic, is there a way to prepare A&E departments for a sudden influx of elderly heart attack patents come a mellow election night in May 2015?

  • asalord

    England votes for ukip – Scotland votes for independence.

  • an ex-tory voter

    Never mind the Tories. Labour’s Northern vote is ripe for the taking by UKIP, after all, who was it started all this mass immigration stuff?
    There is much amusement and possibly a great deal of joy in prospect for all who correctly view Cameron and Milliband as being two sides of the same European federalist coin.

    • Mynydd

      “who was it started all this mass immigration stuff?” Mr Edward Heath (Conservative Prime Minister) when, without consulting the people, signed the Treaty of Rome (article 8), which was reinforced when Mrs Thatcher (Conservative Prime Minister) signed up to the Single Market. There after Mr Major/Blair/Brown/Cameron were / are unable to stop immigration from the EU into the UK.

      • an ex-tory voter

        You are correct about Heath etc. However, when I think of mass immigration I am thinking more of immigration from Africa, Asia and the Middle East and I do believe it was Labour which implemented this in an attempt to guarantee themselves a majority in future Elections. That mass “unskilled influx” has had a disastrous effect on the wages and living standards of the indigenous population of this country. Hence, Labour’s northern vote is ripe for the taking by UKIP.

        • Mynydd

          To control immigration from non EU countries the last Labour government introduced a points base system design to restrict unskilled labour

      • Colonel Mustard

        New Labour. No amount of historical bob and weave by Labour revisionists changes that. From 1997 to 2010 Labour set out to ‘rub the right’s nose in diversity’ and to permanently change the demographics of this country.

        The clue is in the word ‘mass’.

        • Mynydd

          It is not revisionist or a historical bob and weave to say that signing the Treaty of Rome and the Single Market allowed unlimited EU immigration into the UK, and the government of the day are unable to stop it. The only option for the government is to delay, I repeat delay not stop, the immigration from new member states, for up to 7 years.

          • Colonel Mustard

            Oh yes it is! Look at the immigration increase during New Labour’s regime 1997-2010:-


            Mass immigration, planned and delivered by New Labour for ideological and party political reasons without the consent of the English people.

            I’m sick of Labour trying to re-write history to absolve themselves and blame the Tories.

          • berosos_bubos

            Last year there were 40K from China. There really is no excuse.

          • JackyTreehorn

            So you are saying doubling the size of the Islamic population of the UK from 2001-2010 was the fault of the EU?

      • Cyril Sneer

        Well us kippers can’t stand any of the so called ‘big 3’, so you can play the blame game all you want – We won’t be voting for the liblabcon party.

        3 sides of the same coin. 😉

        Looking forward to the European Elections.

      • crosscop

        Labour first opened the floodgates in 1948 and the Empire Windrush sailed in.

  • Toxteth O’Grady

    This is a pretty bad poll for UKIP IMO. Sure they’re beating the Tories but 2nd behind Labour in the big break-through year isn’t great.

    • Pip

      I wouldn’t be too quick to take YouGov Polls too literally, they cherry pick which of their members to ask, already knowing their Political leanings before they invite them to take part, therefore the results could be skewed quite easily in favour of Labour.

      • Toxteth O’Grady

        I hope so. I’ll be voting UKIP myself.

      • HookesLaw

        So YouGov go out of their way to produce a poll they know will be wrong? Good policy for a polling company.

        • the viceroy’s gin

          …it is if that’s what the people paying for the poll are paying them to do.

      • 2trueblue

        Depends on the questions asked and the way they were phrased.

    • AnotherDave

      It’s January. If 2009 is any guide, the numbers will move UKIP’s way as the election approaches.,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

    • Colonel Mustard

      I’m very surprised that Labour can poll like this. There is no justice.

      • Mynydd

        Were you surprised by this particular poll, or all the previous one which showed more or less the same thing.

        • Colonel Mustard

          I am always surprised that any sane, rational and liberty-loving person could contemplate voting for the Labour party which is inherently alien to all three instincts. It is an extreme party, a destructive party that attempts to conceal its radically negative agenda for this country beneath a facade of presumptive boasting, devious propaganda and blatant lying.

          I have little time for all three main parties but I reserve the maximum contempt and disdain for Labour, the party of lies, liars and lying.

      • berosos_bubos

        The state of the economy is not relevant to the three main reasons why people vote Labour.

    • Diogenes

      You should read what Peter Kellner of Yougov says about this poll here:
      He says UKIP are second to Labour now but that their vote usually goes up during the campaign by enough to win outright.
      He also says it shows that the Liberals might not get any seats in European parliament at all.

  • Jez

    I think this is right;

    If traditional Tories and the Right leaning elements of this party joined with the UKIP that is projected to win in May, then a Labour / Lib Doom pact wouldn’t be able to win.

    That’s just by looking at projected figures as they’re allowed through in the MSM.

  • sfin

    It’s a mischievous headline which forgets one crucial element:

    Nigel Farage has completely seen through David Cameron and recognises him for what he is.

    There will never be a UKIP/Con pact whilst the “heir to Blair” is leader of the social democrat party which currently calls itself ‘conservative’.

    • Holly

      These are politicians we are talking about.
      Farage IS NOT a God, he IS a politician.

      • sfin

        Er…nope, I cannot find any religious reference in my original post.
        In 1997 – it seemed the whole country were falling over themselves to worship a certain Anthony Charles Lynton Blair – especially the liberal media. I felt very much in the minority for recognising this shyster from day one.
        I am merely relieved, as much as anything, that the leader of the party I support has publicly voiced that the heir to Blair is another phoney in the same mould.

        • Lady Magdalene

          I too was in the minority who recognised that Blair was a deeply untrustworthy fraud.

          Farage isn’t a God (no-one claims he is) but he speaks plainly without any of the politicians’ usual “get out of jail free” clauses.

  • Alexsandr

    Read my lips.
    UKIP wont do a deal with the tories. Why should they dilute their message and be seen as cohering with the enemy
    Cameron had his chance in 2010 but blew it.

    • Jez

      The opportunity for real change is ripe.

      The Lib Dem’s are toast. (hopefully)

    • ButcombeMan


      My transfer of my support to UKIP, after 50 years of voting Tory, is to avoid having to support Cameron.

      I just do not recognize him as a Conservative.

      Of course if a new anti EU leader of the Conservatives were to emerge, after the inevitable defeats that are coming, that might be a different matter.

      • southerner

        I think only Hooke is voting for him but he is so in love with his left wing idol Cameron that he has him as a screen saver.

        • HookesLaw

          No mone is my idol. it is absurd for people who claim that are Conservative to vote in a way that gives a europhole labour govt.
          UKIPO are merely massaging the extremist tendencies in such voters and they will reap a whirlwind

          • southerner

            As opposed to a Europhile Tory government you mean?

            Real conservatives are completely disenfranchised by the left wing mainstream parties. I agree with you about Cameron and the Tories. That is why the country has gone to the dogs.

            • HookesLaw

              A tory govt that wants to renegotiate powers and is offering a referendum. Labour want closer integration and no referendum.

              You take your choice.

              The fact that you cannot see reality is sufficient proof of your crass stupidity and gross hysteria.
              This thread is a good example of nutjob sentiment in all its howling action.

              There is nothing sinister is arguing we are better off in the EU. Its a legitimate point of view. We might be marginally better off out of it, but in reality its hardly any difference assuming we join the EEA. Why let in a Labour govt over this minor point?

              The notion that ‘outers’ have that we should be out completely including the single market would find great difficulty in passing a referendum since it would turn the British economy upside down at a time when it needs stability. It would put in danger existing and future inward investment.

              The only argument outers have in regard that is just plain wishful thinking.

              The country of course has not gone to the dogs – certainly not due to conservatism. We have a govt for instance grappling with reducing the welfare bill and dependency. We have had 13 years of disastrous labour govt and you by your avowed stupidity will give us back to them.

              People thought is was safe to sneer at the tories in 1997 but look what happened then. The nihilist of UKIP are simply plotting for more of the same. Pardon me if I regard the likes of you with contempt.

              • southerner

                Dear me. You seem a little agitated Hooke.

                Your first sentence is hilarious in its naivety.

                And just because my version of reality (based on the past 30 years of slow decline in this country in everything from the loss of sovereignty to Brussels, the contempt our ruling elite hold for the electorate, the destruction of our manufacturing base, our history and our Christian traditions – I could go on and on) doesn’t accord with yours doesn’t make it “proof” of anything still less what you say it does.

                “The country of course has not gone to the dogs” is your own opinion. There is no “of course” about it. And in any event I don’t blame conservatism – I blame the left wing Blairites like Cameron and his predecessors that you support. You are right about one thing – they are certainly not conservatives.

                • 2trueblue

                  Blair and his merry men were responsible for most of the above, and Brown went off and signed the Lisbon Treaty. The big mistake on Camerons part was to be party to this coalition.
                  No doubt we will all have the pleasure of Liebore again thanks to those who think that not voting conservative is the way forward. Enjoy the total destruction which will follow.

                • southerner

                  Good idea. Vote conservative and get another 5 years of left wing social democracy.

                  Enjoy the continuing destruction which will follow.

              • Hexhamgeezer

                Your 1st line is utter bullshot.and goes downhill from there.

                Cameron and his Government do not ‘want’ to renegotiate powers they are being forced to. They are being forced to give the impression that they are jolly cross with their euro chums.

                Repeat – he d o e s n o t w a n t to renegotiate powers. He does want a referendum. He wants us to shut up.

                • southerner

                  Exactly right but don’t blame Hooke. We’ve all been in love with a wrong ‘un before.

              • Grahame

                It would take the most naive, gullible Tory supporter to believe that Cameron will give us a referendum, it is nothing more than a cynical ploy to get what he wants most….another term in No 10. He is terrified of being the PM who leads us out of Europe, he hasn’t the will, the strength, determination or cojones to do it.

          • sfin

            You are urging us to vote for David ‘cast iron pledge'(on the Lisbon treaty) Cameron, and I agree with you that he is no different from other conservative leaders, in the past, on this issue (including Margaret Thatcher). Talk tough on Europe and deliver something completely different And that is precisely why natural conservatives have lost patience. I would guess that a majority of conservatives want to be – as the line goes – “in Europe, but not run by Europe.” but we have seen far too much salami slicing away of our sovereignty.

            I can pretty much guarantee what will happen to the conservative referendum ‘promise’ – even if they win a majority in 2015. Cameron will go to Europe and ask to renegotiate the terms of our membership. The EU will remind him that Britain signed the last treaty and that renegotiation on this point is not possible. Cameron will then tell us that he hasn’t any new proposals to put to the electorate – therefore no referendum.

            I have no doubt you are a conservative minded person – your party no longer is – and not just on Europe!

            • southerner

              “I have no doubt you (HookesLaw) are a conservative minded person…”

              All postings point to the contrary.

          • David Kay

            well this kipper for one doesnt think the sun shines out of Mr Farages’ bottom. The whole universe radiates from Nigels botty hole

          • ButcombeMan

            “the tory party is pretty much the same as its always been”.

            Incorrect, a lot of long time supporters have left and continue to leave, largely because of Cameron

    • 2trueblue

      We actually know very little about how UKIP would behave, and what they could actually achieve, we hear very little of real policy and most of the show only figures Farage.

      They will do real damage in the European Elections to all three parties, but can that be translated into a party in our parliament?

      • sfin

        This is a common, and understandable view. Please visit the UKIP website, click on the manifesto and have a read.

        Departmental ‘spokesmen/ spokeswomen’ is, admittedly something that Nigel Farage needs to urgently address – his problem at the moment is that he is such good ‘media’ no-one else can get a look in. My only worry about this is that he risks being to UKIP what Blair was to new labour.

        Like I said – read the manifesto, and if you agree with it, let’s have a typically British revolution – one that, bloodlessly, ousts the entitled, elitist shysters from power.

    • Grahame

      Farage has ruled out any pact whilst Cameron is leader, that’s all.

  • AnotherDave

    That YouGov has 50% of 2010 Con voters intending to vote UKIP in the Euros.

    The local election results could be spectacular.

    • Holly

      Or they could be won by…erm…. a politician.
      All of them cr@p, and not really any different from each other.
      Labour, Tory & the Lib Dems all reckon Europe is okay, IF it changed a bit around the edges, and Farage thinks it’s okay, and stands for re- election to sit in it’s Parliament every chance he gets.
      Who’s zooming who???

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