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Spectator exclusive: Tories ‘top 40’ hit list includes 20 Liberal Democrats

14 November 2012

The Tories have a 40:40 strategy for the next election. The aim is to defend their 40 most vulnerable seats and try and win 40 others to give the party a majority. So which 40 are in their sights? Normally, it’s an easy one to answer: you just look at the last election and count which seats have the most narrow Tory defeat.

If you’d done this, there would only be 9 Liberal Democrat MPs on the Tory hit list. But the Liberal Democrat vote has changed radically since the last election. So Stephen Gilbert, the PM’s political secretary,  has drawn up a new list, added in demographic factors, current polling data and consumer targeting. As a result, the  number of Liberal Democrat seats on the list more than doubled.

As I say in my column for the new Spectator, this will obviously affect coalition relations. The Tories hope of a majority is to unseat more than a third of the MPs of the party they are governing with.

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  • David

    All you need to do is look at the Tory websit, nothing asking for donations aiming at marginals, just happy stories (important, but no this is good so why not fund continuing it ?). Is this a party of power, seriously?

  • Daveyyy12

    I live in a pretty OK area and I am noticing the pain that the low to middle class wage earners are feeling, I see Spirits, Wines and meats all security tagged, Every local supermarket seems to have security guards. Pubs shutting down everywhere. The success of Thatchers was to reward the working man. Dave and George give them nothing yet they tell them why giving aid to India is important. The LidDems policy of raising thresholds is correct and makes sense. Tories just tell us why cutting taxes on the rich will make us better in the long run. As the pain cuts in it will get harder to sell that line.

    The Tories could be the party of the working man instead they want to be the party of Hampstead, Islington. That’s is why they will lose, because they do not understand what conservatism is. Want to be re-elected then do the following, fight for the working man.

    Target Tax thresholds, raise them high and fast. Tell them you will keep increasing them as you want to make working pay.

    Cut all employers taxes lowering the cost of employment.

    To do this cut spending, cut foreign aid, Legal aid, advance the DLA testing, dump green taxes. Say the fuel escalator is over. Push shale gas rapidly. Use the interest repayments to push up thresholds.

    Start doing PR showing how the EHRC is being abused. Start to make its decisions advisory and make draw a line in the sand with Labour and Lib dems. We will defend the people of this country but the Labour and Lib Dems will defend the terrorists.
    Start doing PR showing how the foreign aid money is being abused. Show all the middle class graduates being funded with this money.
    Demand the BBC shows the skeptic climate change message. Then have an inquiry into why the BBC lied to us.

    Do all this and you could be elected.

    Still, no EU referendum and you will not get my vote

    • rubyduck

      Agree with everything except the EU referendum. We don’t want a referendum, which will probably be a close result on a very low turnout, we want out.

      • Daveyyy12

        The lower the turn out the better. People like me would crawl to vote out.

        Labour will have trouble getting their clients out.

        They will of course use the Postal vote trick.

  • HooksLaw

    Again is this really a story?
    If the 40 top chances of gains include some LDs why should this be a surprise. The conservatives are second in a large number of LD seats.
    The only surprise is that the LDs seem to think that their future lies in not pursuing an electoral pact.

  • Archimedes

    There are about 20 LibDem seats that will go to the Conservatives even if you assume a slight recovery in the LibDem vote by 2015. They could target more. There are also about 11 that will almost certainly go to Labour.

    • HooksLaw

      The sly electoral pact between labour and the LDs gave the LDs more seats than they deserved. Thats slowly unwinding.
      the LDs in govt are treating themselves like an opposition. They might wake up one day and realise that effectively attacking themselves is not a good policy.

      But then again the notion hasn’t yet dawned on the right wing nutjobs.

  • barbie

    They will both have a fight on their hands. Both are forgetting UKIP, who are appearing more and more and might just break through at the next election. Whatever happens they will dent the Tories vote. They only have themselves to blame. If the Tories had done the decent thing and held a rederendum on Europe they would not be in front in the polls. They have consisitantly denied the electorate the right to decide for themselves, well Cameron has. WE are not satisfied and will not allow promises to be made on just expectation, with nothing definate to go on. Churchill must be spinning in his grave knowing that, Tories are denying justice and freedom of choice. If they believe this will give them the lead they want and the seats they are truely out of touch with the people. I don’t think people really know who to vote for, they are fed up with them all, their lies, cheating, and greed over several years. For all their talk nothings really changed. That’s why people are fed up and may just vote for complete change. Can one really blame them? When I read this article I almost laughed out loud, are the Tories really thinking they will win with Cameron in tow?

    • 2trueblue

      The EU is the issue, although those who want a vote on it are considered ‘headbangers’. We now have a situation where neither the Tories or Liebore have delivered the vote, so a promise will not be enough.

      Cameron has the edge in that it is in his gift to deliver such a vote. I think he will not comply and thus will not be in power after 2015. I have no idea what, apart from losing the election will convince the Tories that it is one of the main issues.
      Hopefully the debacle at the BBC will mean we might get some real media input and the electorate might get a more balanced view. Who knows?

      • HooksLaw

        There will inevitably be a vote on the EU, since the EU is going to create a new treaty more closely integrating the Eurozone members. We will have to renegotiate our relationship and there will be a referendum and you can have your vote.
        Grow up and start living in the real world.

        • 2trueblue

          And you think yours is a mature attitude?

    • HooksLaw

      Yawn. Clearly you are salivating for a return of a Labour govt. A Europhile Labour Govt.

      • Daveyyy12

        It is my vote.. You want it…. Then give me the EU vote..

        As for Labour, I am starting to think the people of this country need to feel real pain. Real poverty not relative poverty.

        • Coffeehousewall

          Our nation is large a large stone rolling down hill and accelerating. We need to hit bottom before we can go anywhere else. We need a throughly conservative Conservative Party that sticks to its principles and waits its time. All we have now is a mixture of socialists destroying the country together.

          I will vote UKIP rather than for any socialist party. Voting for a socialist party provides legitimacy for them. The Lib/Lab/Con Party have the same policies and are taking the same actions. What does it matter if a different set of members of the same virtual party gain power next? But when we reach the bottom of the hill it will be time for proper conservative and patriotic principles.

  • the viceroy’s gin

    Heh. As if the Tory tossers would give their electoral master strategic plan to the Speccie lickspittle, 3 years before an election. If you believe that, then I have a room full of Rembrandts to sell you, cheap.

    More likely, the lickspittle has been given a list sent out to mollify the UKIP insurgency, that the Cameroons will in fact open hostilities… someday, just not today. A list and approach all agreed with the LD’s, of course, as the ultimate fight will take place on terms favorable to them both, Cameroon and LD. For now, the aim is to destabilize the interloper UKIP.

    The Cameroons really are a shallow thinking lot.

    • HooksLaw

      Yawn. Shallow thinking, are you serious in bringing that subject up?.

  • Robert_Eve

    Sounds like a plan.

  • Justathought

    James, I’m off-topic but I have read plenty about the odious Abu Hamza escaping justice but nothing here (or on the disgraceful BBC) about the shameful incarceration of one of our brave war heroes Sgt Danny Nightingale.

    • Justathought

      That should read “the odious Abu Qatada” (although there’s really not much difference!)

  • Justathought

    There must be an In/Out referendum before the GE. If there is not then you can add all the europhile MP’s to the hit list.

    • telemachus

      You sir are obsessed with the EU
      We the punters could not give a toss
      UKIP only gets votes because folks perceive they are anti immigration

      • vix

        Incorrect. They would get this punter’s because they are anti-dictatorship by a bunch of unaccountable overspending under-monitored commissioners.
        Accusations of being anti immigration are possibly true, but that doesn’t make their membership racist – anymore than believing in over-population makes someone anti-children.

        • telemachus

          I did not call them racist
          Mad and led by an eye bulging frog yes

        • telemachus

          As for your vote vix, I took that as read
          I meant ordinary punters

      • Daveyyy12

        Why worry, note referendum then the country gets balls. Why you crying?

  • Paul

    If only there were the slightest chance the people in Sheffield Hallam could vote Conservative.

    • barbie

      That would make my day!

    • HooksLaw

      Thick students can be relied on to vote labour if not LD.

      • Amergin Selby

        You normally make intelligent comments- not that I agree with them, then occasionally you stoop to making idiotic generalisations of this kind and spoil all your good work. Do try to keep your standards up and avoid remarks of this nature.

  • commentator

    The complacent and disorganised Tories haven’t got a prayer. The Lib Dems may be nasty self-righteous losers but they are also political streetfighters with good local networks and the gut instinct to play dirty, very dirty when they have their backs to the wall. They also hate the Tories with a passion whereas the Tories’ local associations are in meltdown. Given that their leadership are closet Lib Dems anyway, there is no chance that they will take the fight to the Lib Dems. Cameron is hoping for another draw so that he can try to form another coalition.

    • telemachus

      Fortunatly we will get the administration we need in 2015
      With a Chancellor who understands the need for growth.

      • Daveyyy12

        Balls, total balls.

        Sadly the entire western civilisation is living on Debt, even George and Dave are doing basically what Balls would have done.

        The best thing we have going for us it that we are not in the Euro. Lovely watching Hollande, the man who wants growth.

        • telemachus

          too much worry about debt
          China have more than enough surplus to buy up all our debt

          • Daveyyy12

            Did you know socialism is a synonym for stupidity?

            • telemachus

              Or Caring

              • rubyduck

                Caring for what ?

          • anyfool

            You really should get back on the Lithium, China has a few trillion in foreign reserves and debts, half of the debts are very dodgy and would be defaulted on if they pressed for quick repayment.

            They also have the highest internal debt ratio in the world, vast amounts uncounted and worse unaccountable, they are on a knife edge and if the likes of Obama, Balls and Hollande get unfettered control they will not help or even be able to if they were so inclined.

            • telemachus

              your post makes little sense
              China can well underline any debt we could run up
              When the going gets tough we default

              • anyfool

                They simply do not have the money, also why would the Chinese help the UK, the only people they dislike more than us is the Japanese, the two nations who have recently humiliated them. recently can mean hundreds of years to the Chinese.
                As for default bring it on, it means instant removal of most public sector workers and all pension contracts null and void.
                You really need to think ahead as opposed to the next key on the computer.

    • EJ

      Forsyth honestly believes this nonsense? They’re FINISHED James! The weak, self-hating, anti-establishment Lefties can’t stand them – and under the H2B they’ve succeeded in alienating almost all of their grass roots support (the people who wanted principled action on the things that matter and didn’t get it – and couldn’t give two hoots about whether gays can get married or not).

      • Vulture

        He doesn’t really believe it EJ. He’s merely got a Patten-style sinecure as licensed pipe to carry Coalition sewage to the more gullible among the Speccie’s readers. The real Lib Dems and the covert Lib Dems masquerading as Cameron Conservatives will be massacred at the next election. Telemachus is (partly) right. We are so decadent that we deserve the two Eds to administer our coup de grace. Corby will be the first straw in a wind that will blow Dave, Nick and George to kingdom come and good bloody riddance. They appal and disgust me and I hate them and what they have done to our once beloved country more than even I can express. Loathsome scum.

        • EJ

          Couldn’t agree more Vulture. The country I knew growing up has gone forever. These idiots under Cameron had a small window to do something about it and they haven’t had the guts to tackle any of the things that really matter. And so we continue our descent into being a poor, third rate, self-hating, multicultural hell-hole.

  • Charlie the Chump

    Good strategy, shame they can’t target more.

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