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David Cameron reverses Ed Miliband’s conference bounce

12 October 2012

Just as Ed Miliband seemed to get a poll bounce from his conference speech last week, so David Cameron seems to have got one from his on Wednesday. On YouGov’s question of who would make the best Prime Minister, Cameron has extended his lead to 14 points. That more than reverses the bump Miliband got on that question from his conference (he had closed the gap from 12 points before the conferences to just four last week). In fact, it’s the best result for Cameron on that crucial question since the Budget in March.

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On voting intention, the Tories’ conference does seem to have helped them close the gap to Labour a little. YouGov’s latest poll has Labour’s lead at seven points (42-35), down from 14 points (45-31) last week. But it’s not clear how much — if any — of the Tories’ gain is down to Cameron’s speech itself. Labour’s lead was already down to seven points in the poll YouGov conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday — mostly before Cameron took to the stage in Birmingham.

Overall, conference season looks like it might be a wash. Going into Lib Dem conference, YouGov had Labour 43, Conservatives 34 and Lib Dems 8. Coming out of the Tories’, it’s Labour 42, Conservatives 35 and Lib Dems 8. So Labour are down one, and the Tories are up one — but those changes are well within the margin of error.

A seven point deficit (for two days running) actually counts as relatively good news for the Conservatives these days — since the Budget in March, YouGov have had them running 10 points behind Labour on average. Still, it would be more than enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street if repeated in the general election.

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  • Mynydd

    “David Cameron reverses Ed Miliband’s conference bounce” What a come down, in that he can now only equal Mr Miliband, when, he should at least be reducing Labour’s lead in the polls rather than just standing still. With each passing day we can see what a failure Mr Cameron is. Failed to win an overall majority, failed to stop a double dip, failed to kill off Mr Miliband, failed to sack failed ministers, failed to stop u-turns, failed to stop his red face, the list goes on and on. What a leader.

  • Dimoto

    Another delightful blog, Labourtrolls inc. in a splendid coalition with UKIPfrothers inc. to have a satisfying rant at Cameron’s very decent speech. Yawn.

  • Magnolia

    Towards the end of the speech, I heard David say “we are paying down the deficit”.
    Now the deficit is the overspend or the borrowing, in my simple terms, and one doesn’t usually say that you pay down the overspending or pay down the borrowing, but one might say that we are paying down debt.
    The media loved the speech but the live audience seemed suspicious and luke warm and David looked tense and uncomfortable as he delivered it, hence the kiss at the end. He fell in to his wife’s arms because he was glad that it was all over because it had been so unpleasant.
    I would say that the polls will be a temporary blip.
    It’s very slow and action light despite his, admittedly, fine words (mostly).

  • Steve

    Listening to the part in his speech about how hard his father worked to give him his privileged upbringing was interesting. He seemed to forgot to mention the bit about how his money was kept in offshore tax havens though.

  • Heartless etc.,

    It’s the bounce from a crash landing dear!

  • NeilMc1

    It’s not what the leaders say, it’s how the speaches and responses are reported in their paper of choice. Thus if the Mirror spin that Milliband has proven himself to be Churchillian, he will get a bounce. Very few people actually watched the speaches or read the transcripts.

  • L’Arse

    With such a poll boost, the Tories must be itching to get on with fighting the Corby by-election…

  • George_Arseborne

    Another desperate headline for a desperate Party.Cameron speech , well read but was far lacking in substance. He should enjoy PMship while it last. I do not see any Tory majority in the next decades

    • james102

      What of Cameron’s next job? Where do you think that will be?

      • Richard StClair

        He could do the same as he is doing now and become a fluffer to the wealthy

  • David Lindsay

    So they are back where they were a month ago.

    No longer on course for a three-figure Labour majority. Only for a Labour majority of 90.

    What a triumph for David Cameron. By his standards, it really is.

  • Coffeehousewall

    I don’t know anyone who took any notice of Cameron’s speech at all. I am not saying there are none. But it had no effect on anyone I am aware of, since they did not even listen to it.

    • james102

      This is why it was such a mistake to choose a leader because
      he made a good speech.

      The electorate are detached from the party faithful in a way
      we have never experienced before, it is like political party members belong to
      a minority cult.

      What percentage of the population took a blind bit of notice
      of either Cameron or Miliband’s speech?

      • Coffeehousewall

        Would it have mattered if they had given the speech the other one did? The fact it would not have mattered at all tells us that politics in the UK is not about democracy at all.

        • james102

          Very good point.

      • Dan Grover

        I didn’t, and I consider myself very interested in politics. However, I did read lots of analysis and responses to it in newspapers and on blogs. I know what the main themes were. I know what the left thought of it, and I know what the right thought of it. I know what Libertarians thought of it and I know what conservatives thought of it. I know all that because I continued to read the newspapers and blogs in the same way I always do. Assuming the majority of people didn’t actively alter their reading habits during the conference season, it’s safe to assume they would have gotten *some* interpretation of all of the speeches too, and this does ooze into the public perception of political figures.

        • james102

          Yes, this in fact is how it works, but then again only for
          those of us who take an interest and that is fewer and fewer.

          Turnout will hit record lows at the next election unless
          something really unexpected happens first, the Eurozone or Iran being likely sources for that.

      • redmary2

        i heard both speech’s and Ed Milliband’s was the best by a mile,

    • perdix

      Aren’y you stating the bleeding obvious? If someone did not hear the speech I would have expected that it made no difference to them!

      • Coffeehousewall

        Idiot. People didn’t hear it because they chose not to listen to it. They chose not to listen to it because politicians are not trusted or respected. You are suggesting that if only everyone had been made to hear the speech they would be converted. Nothing could be further from the truth.

        • telemachus associates

          Vicar you talk bilge as usual
          It is all in the perception.
          The perception of all the conference and all the speeches was that the Manchester speeches gave us hope. The others were bland.
          Charismatic Balls gave us Build for Growth
          Ed Miliband gave us a measured Prime Minister

          • ToryOAP

            Jimmy, see a doctor.

  • james102

    What a surprise!

    The whole country following every word said at the
    conferences and hardly a move on the poll.

    Remind me what proportion of the electorate knows which
    party Osborne or Balls belongs to?

    The Anoraks despair about voter apathy but maybe the
    electorate have got it right: it really does not matter, the judges and the EU
    make the laws, and our politicians take the blame.

    • telemachus associates

      The whole country is beginning to recognise that Balls is the only man with a credible economic message and that he will have to wait until 2015 to implement it.
      They recognise that they will have to go on suffering until then.
      The youth will have to wait for a job until then
      They also know that it is now credible to say
      Ed Miliband Prime Minister

      • Coffeehousewall

        You must be getting paid an awful lot of money to write such drivel so repeatedly. It is not even funny and just paints you as a very sad man indeed.

      • David B

        Well this just proves what u keep saying u have no clue about economics.

      • HooksLaw

        There is no doubt about it, you talk like a man who has come to love Big Brother.

      • ToryOAP

        Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy. Fool fool fool.

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